LIVE: Indiana Democratic Primary Exit Poll Analysis

ByABC NEWS ANALYSIS DESK ABCNews logo
Tuesday, May 3, 2016

Who turned out in Tuesday's Indiana primary and what motivated their votes?

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The following is reportable as "preliminary" exit poll results from the Indiana Democratic primaries. Please note that exit poll results can and do change as additional data come in. Please check back for updates.

Preliminary exit poll results from Indiana's Democratic primary show a contest with turnout that's higher than usual this year among liberals (notably strong liberals), young voters, whites and those focused on a candidate who's honest or cares about people like them - all some of Bernie Sanders' better groups to date.

Demographics: More than seven in 10 voters in preliminary exit poll results are whites, vs. an average of 61 percent in previous primaries and a better group for Sanders in most contests to date. Nearly half of voters are under age 45, also more than average this election cycle. And seven in 10 are liberals, including three in 10 strong liberals, both on pace for records in Indiana and among the most of any state to vote so far this year. These trends are beneficial to Sanders; we'll watch as the evening progresses and the exit poll results are updated.

Attributes: Voters focused either on honesty or on empathy voters are outpacing their average for the year in these early exit poll results. More than six in 10 Democratic voters in Indiana say the most important candidate trait is someone who's honest and trustworthy (three in 10) or who cares about people like them (also three in 10); fewer, four in 10, say it's someone with the right experience or who's most electable. Generally, so far this year, the former have been better been for Sanders, the latter, much better for Clinton.

Inspiring: Results on the question of who's the more inspiring candidate are worth watching as well. In New York, Maryland and Pennsylvania, Clinton was seen as more inspiring than Sanders, while in Connecticut and Wisconsin, Sanders who prevailed on this question, and in the voting. In preliminary exit poll results in Indiana, six in 10 say Sanders is the more inspiring candidate, vs. four in 10 say it's Clinton. Sanders result on this question rivals his in the five states where it's been asked - 59 percent in Wisconsin.

Electability: Early exit poll results indicate that Clinton is retaining her advantage on who's most likely to win the Democratic nomination, but she's doing much worse than usual in who voters say would best able to beat Trump. On the latter, it's very close, while she beat Sanders by more than 2-1 in previous contests.

Ready for a woman? No matter how they voted today, most Democratic primary voters believe the country's ready for a women president. In a new question, nearly six in 10 in Indiana say the country's definitely ready, with most of the rest saying it's "probably" ready.

Not nice: The campaign's been more contentious on the Democratic side of late, but there's little indication of that in preliminary results in this state. Only about a quarter of Indiana voters say Clinton's attacked Sanders unfairly, while two in 10 say that Sanders has done the same to Clinton.

Realism and Obama: Clinton's ideas are seen as more realistic by Indiana voters - nearly eight in 10 vs. more than six in 10 for Sanders - but the gap's a bit smaller than usual in preliminary exit poll results. It's been 76 to 57 percent in the nine states where the question's been asked before.

Clinton's also done well so far by linking herself with Barack Obama. More Indiana voters think the next president should continue Obama's policies, half, while fewer, just more than a third, prefer a more liberal direction. But, again, the gap's smaller than usual. Supporters of more liberal policies are more numerous than average in Indiana, a group that's voted heavily for Sanders in past contests.

Honesty: Clinton's main weakness has been questions about her honesty, and this looks especially so in preliminary exit poll results in Indiana. Only a bit more than half see her as honest and trustworthy, 30 percentage points fewer than the number who say the same about Sanders.

Economics: Anti-Wall Street and anti-free trade voters have tilted towards Sanders to date, while pro-Wall Street and pro-free trade voters have been very strong for Clinton. Today, more than six in 10 Indiana Democratic voters say Wall Street hurts the U.S. economy, vs. three in 10 who say it helps. There's more of an even split on free trade. Both are very close to their averages in previous primaries.

Democratic solidarity: While the Democrats have had their squabbles, there seems to be far less internal damage compared with the GOP contest. Three-quarters of Indiana Democratic primary voters say the primaries have energized the party as opposed to dividing it, with no difference between Clinton and Sanders supporters on the issue. A majority says they'd definitely vote for Clinton if she were the nominee, as do two-thirds for Sanders, with most others saying they'd probably do so.

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