The report highlights the "likelihood of violence and civil unrest" around the 2025 electoral vote certification process and the presidential inauguration.
Released earlier this month, the report states while there have been fewer threats to members of Congress in 2024 than in 2020, threats rose significantly after Election Day four years ago, a trend that Capitol Police anticipates will repeat in 2024.
The report adds that the escalating rhetoric on social media "could suggest an environment that is conducive to politically-motivated violence following the US Presidential Election."
Capitol Police expect demonstrations targeting the electoral certification process and say an activist group "with a history of large-scale demonstrations involving illegal activity plans to protest the Inauguration regardless of the outcome."
They also expect protests related to the ongoing war in Israel, noting that the groups are "nearly certain to target the Inauguration."
Their decision to target the inauguration is regardless of the outcome of the election. One group has already applied for a permit for Inauguration Day within the security perimeter, but the request will be denied.
However, there are now planned protests for Jan 6., the day of the electoral vote certification.
Capitol Police have reported a surge in social media posts alleging that the election will be "stolen."
They noted that foreign influence efforts to spread conspiracies to undermine, manipulate and tamper confidence in the electoral process "could exacerbate existing political tensions."
Russia remains the primary foreign threat, though Iran also attempted to exacerbate tensions over the conflict in Israel, according to the assessment.
The report emphasizes that threat actors view electoral vote certification and the inauguration as "their last opportunities to influence the election results through violence."
The Capitol Police intelligence assessment warns that some threats "remain unknown," particularly that of "lone actor violence."
"The motives of some recent assailants are not entirely coherent or remain unknown, highlighting the difficulty in predicting lone actor violence," the report notes.
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