According to a poll he commissioned last week, Mayor Lori Lightfoot would beat Garcia in the crowded field for the February election 22% to 14%. But in the April runoff, Garcia would beat Lightfoot 43% to 34%.
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That's not surprising with his name recognition. But, Garcia would face a number of hurdles.
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"Well, time he's getting into the race fairly late. Petitions are due later this month. He hasn't officially declared and won't be able to at least until next week, he hasn't had a chance to raise a lot of money or get his message out. He's kind of behind the eight ball," said ABC7 Political Analyst Laura Washington.
Then, there's the issue of Garcia's progressive base that helped him get to the run off in 2015. Those groups may have moved on because Garcia was unwilling to make a decision sooner.
Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson has already lined support from of number of unions that previously had supported Garcia. The CTU made it clearer that even if Garcia gets in, it will stick with Johnson.
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"Having bold, progressive leadership that's ready to lead today is something that the residents of Chicago deserve and they want," said Johnson said.
In what could be another indication Garcia is getting closer to jumping in the race, his campaign just filed paperwork with the state board of elections forming a committee for a mayoral run. Garcia's poll shows Lightfoot's unfavorable numbers are over 50%.
The mayor did not respond to questions about the poll, but issued a statement, taking a jab at Garcia.
"While some are still considering if they are up for the job, she is fully ready to take on the tough challenges ahead," Lightfoot said, in part.
If Garcia decides to run for mayor, his campaign is eying Nov. 10 as the date for the announcement. It's symbolic because that would be the 40th anniversary of when Harold Washington launched his bid for mayor.