Live: Republican Primary Exit Poll Analysis
Who turned out in Tuesday's Wisconsin primary and what motivated their votes?
Here are some of our observations of exit poll results from Republicans voting in the primary tonight.
This latest update is based on preliminary exit poll results. Check back for updates.
Contested convention?
More than half of Wisconsin GOP voters say the candidate with the most votes in the primaries should win the party's nomination, while four in 10 favor a contested convention, saying that delegates should pick whichever nominee they think best. A sharp division on this question displays the current rifts within the GOP: Donald Trump's supporters overwhelmingly oppose a contested convention. Those supporting Ted Cruz or John Kasich feel otherwise.
Optimism vs. concern
In another new set of questions, nearly four in 10 GOP primary voters in Wisconsin say they'd "scared" of what Trump would do in office if elected president - hitting nearly six in 10 among Cruz and Kasich supporters. Those are far greater than the levels of concern among Trump supporters we see about Cruz or Kasich (fewer than two in 10 Trump supporters are scared of a Kasich win, a quarter for Cruz.)
Six in 10 overall are "excited" or "optimistic" about a Cruz presidency. Fewer, about half, are excited or optimistic about a Kasich presidency, declining to just over four in 10 for Trump.
Outsider
Nearly half of GOP voters want someone with experience in politics, close to as high as it's been so far this election cycle - and previously Trump's won only 7 percent of these voters, vs. 33 percent for Cruz and 24 percent for Kasich. About half of voters instead say they'd like the next president to be someone from "outside the political establishment." Trump's previously won two-thirds of outsider voters.
Deportation
More than six in 10 GOP voters in Wisconsin think undocumented immigrants should be offered a path to legal status, on track to be the highest of any state this year (it's topped out at 59 percent in Virginia). Only a third support deporting undocumented immigrants, fewer than in previous primaries. Deportation voters have been a strong group for Trump in previous primaries; Cruz beat Trump in recent contests (North Carolina, Missouri and Illinois) among the larger group that favors a path to legal status, and Kasich won them in Ohio.
Beat Clinton
More than four in 10 Wisconsin voters think Cruz has the best chance to beat Clinton. Only a third think Trump's got the best shot, and fewer than two in 10 say it's Kasich.
Unfair campaigning
Many more people think Trump has run the most unfair campaign - more than half say so, vs. a quarter for Cruz and one in 10 for Kasich.
Late decidersFour in 10 GOP voters in Wisconsin say they made up their minds less than a month ago, similar to previous primaries, vs. six in 10 who decided in the last month. Trump's dominated among early deciders in previous contests, but it's been a different story among late deciders. In several recent primaries, Kasich or Cruz won those who made up their minds in the last month.
Shares Voter Values
Roughly a third say it's most important to them that a candidate shares their values, nearly as many as say someone who'll "bring needed change" is most important. Cruz has won 40 percent of values voters in previous primaries, vs. 20 percent for Kasich and just 12 percent for Trump. Trump's won 46 percent of "change" voters so far, vs. 23 percent for Cruz and 12 percent for Kasich.
Muslim ban
As has been the case throughout the GOP primaries this year, there's broad support in these preliminary Wisconsin results (seven in 10) for Trump's proposal to ban non-U.S. Muslims from entering the country. Trump's won 47 percent of these voters in previous states, vs. Cruz's 28 percent, but Cruz was much closer to Trump among these voters in some recent contests, notably in North Carolina and Missouri.
Nearly half of Wisconsin GOP primary voters think the U.S. should take a more active role in world affairs, while just three in 10 think it should be less active, a policy Trump has championed recently with regard to NATO. (The rest think it should be about as active as it is now.)
Third party/not voting in November:
If the general election came down to Trump vs. Hillary Clinton, two in 10 GOP voters in Wisconsin say they'd vote for Clinton or stay home, slightly more than would do so if the contest were between Cruz and Clinton. Similar numbers would vote for a third party in both situations.
To watch - conservatives and evangelicals
Cruz has been especially competitive in two groups in previous contests - "very" conservative GOP voters (winning 41 percent of their support across primaries to date) and evangelicals (winning 33 percent, vs. 18 percent from non-evangelicals). Both may be of interest in Wisconsin, even though in past years evangelicals have been less prevalent here than in other state primaries. In preliminary results, a third says they're very conservative, among the most ever in exit polls back to 1976, while about four in 10 are evangelicals, a lot less than the average of 59 percent in 2016.
In preliminary results in Wisconsin, three in 10 GOP voters say they're "very" conservative and four in 10 are evangelicals - about the norm for the state.
