5-on-5: Ranking top NBA free agents, best fits, bargains and more
With Cleveland Cavaliers crowned NBA champs and the NBA draft in the books, free agency is right around the corner.
Who are the top available players this offseason? Can the Cavs add a piece for a second title run? What impact will the sizable jump in salary cap have on the market? Our NBA panelists take a look at the issues looming before free agents can officially sign on.
5-on-5 also welcomes a guest panelist -- Zhang Weiping, former player and head coach of the Chinese men's national basketball team and current NBA commentator for Tencent.
For a thorough primer on 2016-17 free agency, check out Kevin Arnovitz's analysis here.
1. Rank your top three free agents.
Amin Elhassan, ESPN Insider:Kevin Durant, LeBron JamesandAl Horford. There obviously is a considerable drop-off from the top two to the third, illustrating just how thin this year's free-agent crop is. An argument can be made for a couple of restricted free agents (such asBradley Beal and Andre Drummond)and some vets (such asDwight Howard, Mike Conley and Nic Batum), but ultimately, I think Durant and James lead the way (with Durant taking the edge because of his age), and Horford comes next.
Calvin Watkins, ESPN.com:1. Durant: He will get plenty of recruiting visits this summer, as he should.2. James: He's expected to become a free agent, but I suspect he'll remain in Cleveland. 3. Hassan Whiteside: There's so much upside for this talented center. Maturity is a question, but he got better as the season progressed.
Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Insider:I'm going to ignore restricted free agents whose current team will match any offer sheet they get, as well as James and Durant. So among the non-transcendent, more realistic targets, my top three are: 1. Conley,a two-way point guard who can also play off the ball. 2. Whiteside, an explosive center who can fix any team's defense with the stroke of a pen. 3. Horford, an All-Star big man with versatility on both ends of the floor who can play inside and shoot from the outside.
Zhang Weiping,Tencent:Durant, James and Drummond. Being the No. 1 free agent this summer, Durant could sign a five-year contract worth $160 million or agree to a short-term deal, allowing him to sign a more lucrative deal when the salary cap spikes. LeBron is also going to get a big contract as a 13-year veteran (although staying in Cleveland on a short-term deal could actually cost him $3 million). And Drummond will likely get a less expensive max as a restricted free agent coming off his rookie deal.
Ian Begley, ESPN.com:James and Durant are the top two on everyone's list. No. 3 will engender debate; I'd go with Whiteside. In free agency, finding young players who have plenty of room to grow -- and can realistically be expected to do so -- is key. A Whiteside signing isn't without risk, but it's rare to find a free agent with fewer than 150 games played who has shown an ability to affect the game the way Whiteside has (14.2 PPG, 11.8 RPG, 3.7 BPG last season).
2. Is there a free agent who could help LeBron and the Cavs?
Elhassan:Of course, but is there a free agent they can realistically go after? The Cavs are hopelessly capped out and are a luxury-tax payer, meaning they have only the taxpayer midlevel exception (roughly $3.5 million) to spend in a market where cash is plentiful.
Watkins:I wouldn't mind seeing Courtney Lee move to the Land. Lee will be 31 when the season starts, and he's a good defender who can guard multiple positions. His outside shot is a question mark, but his defense makes up for it.
Doolittle:The Cavs are one of the few teams with limited financial flexibility this offseason, so any major change to LeBron's supporting cast will have to come through the trade market, with Kevin Love being the most likely significant player to be dangled. Cleveland has long needed a shot-blocker, so among the bargain free agents, Roy Hibbert might be a great fit on a team-friendly, short-term deal. Hibbert needs some career rejuvenation, and there would be no better way to do it than protecting the lane for LeBron.
Zhang:Lee. With J.R. Smithdeclining his player option and Iman Shumpert struggling to score, Lee appears to be the perfect replacement among this year's free agents. Moreover, with Love struggling in the Finals, the Cavs could try to sign Ryan Anderson, a similar but cheaper stretch 4. It would take some trades and cap gymnastics, but those two players could help.
Begley:It would take a few significant departures for Cleveland to have enough cap space to sign a top free agent. Let's say the Cavs move Love to deal with cap space and decide against re-signing Smith to create the requisite room. Then I'd think Nicolas Batum, one of the top wings, would be a great fit. Batum can play shooting guard and small forward. His versatility (15 PPG, 6 APG) would fit well into any of Cleveland's small-ball lineups.
3. Name the best "perfect fit" of prospective teams and free agents.
Elhassan:I would love to see Joakim Noah on the Spurs or Warriors, where his talents as a passing big would be used in motion offenses and his versatile defensive abilities applied to sophisticated team defenses.
Watkins:Everybody calm down -- well, maybe not -- but I just think Jeremy Lin returning to Houston would make sense. He's played for coach Mike D'Antoni before in New York and understands this up-tempo offense well. He can vibe with James Harden as a starter or come off the bench. Lin is a much more mature player than he was when he was in Houston, and that could be the difference.
Doolittle:Conley would be a tremendous replacement for Derrick Rose in Chicago and an ideal backcourt partner for Jimmy Butler. Both can do a little bit of everything -- run the pick-and-roll, defend and play off the ball. Conley can space the floor when Butler initiates the offense, something Rose couldn't do. And Conley's ability to defend point guards would allow Butler to focus full time on wing defense, of which the Bulls are otherwise in short supply.
Zhang: TheGolden State Warriors and Durant, ideally. Not only could this win-win partnership unveil a new dynasty for the coming five years, but it could also significantly lower the risk of injury for KD by allowing him to play fewer minutes. And by adding Durant to a roster with Stephen Curry, Klay ThompsonandDraymond Green,the Warriors would come up with an upgraded "Death Lineup" that seems unbeatable.
Begley:James and Durant, of course, could fit well on any team in the league. But if you put Durant on the Spurs -- in the same starting five asKawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge--it would significantly change the dynamic of the Western Conference. In addition to weakening OKC, this transaction could also help San Antonio in a potential playoff matchup against Golden State. Along with what he'd give the Spurs on offense, Durant's length, ability to switch on screens and defend the perimeter would impede the Warriors, as it did in the Western Conference finals this spring.
4. Who stands to gain the most from the increased salary cap this offseason?
Note: The salary cap is expected to rise from $70 million this season to $94 million next season.
Elhassan:Midtier free agents. Because the max salaries are tied to a percentage of the cap, they'll move up accordingly with the cap increase. Minimum salaries are predetermined, so they'll stay fixed. But midtier salaries, once roughly around $5-7 million, will jump by percentages higher than that of the cap increase, as the seller's market forces teams to seek to outbid one another for the services of decent free agents.
Watkins:I like the possibility of what Boston could do. The Celtics will have $58 million in cap space available, and some of their top players are already signed to reasonable financial deals that won't bother the cap down the line. Boston has a chance to make an immediate impact this offseason with two major signings in addition to its draft picks.
Doolittle:Probably Miami. Without the increase, Pat Riley would have faced a very difficult task to retain Whiteside because he'll have to use cap space to keep him. Now he can pay Whiteside and has a fighting chance to keep his other key free agents, namely Dwyane Wade and Joe Johnson, and perhaps Luol Deng. This is particularly crucial given the uncertainty over Chris Bosh's future. And if somehow Durant were to come into play, well, Riley is nothing if not an opportunist.
Zhang:LeBron -- sort of. By being in the league for more than 10 years and with the Cavs for the past two, James is eligible to sign a four-year contract with 7.5 percent raises at 35 percent of the new salary cap, with a base salary starting at around $33 million. He could also wait a year until the cap spikes again and sign an even bigger long-term deal, although that would keep him off the free-agent market for a while. If he wants a long-term deal, he's in a good spot, but continuing to sign one-year deals just got a little more complicated.
Begley:Whiteside. After several years of toiling in the basketball backwaters, the Heat 7-footer is hitting free agency at the best time. He'll probably draw four-year offers north of $80 million. For a player who has made less than $5 million over the course of his career and just $980,000 last season, this is a huge payday. Another player hitting free agency at the right time is Bismack Biyombo. After making $2.8 million last season, he should get a deal with a per-year value north of $12 million.
5. Which free agent could be the best bargain of the offseason?
Elhassan:Kent Bazemore. He's improved by leaps and bounds since his rookie year, and as his jump shot becomes more consistent, his value only increases.
Watkins:Noah's health and play declined this past season. It seemed as if he was just tired of playing in Chicago. A new team might help him find the energy that was missing last season. Of course, if he's healthy, that should pay dividends, but a fresh start somewhere else might revitalize his career.
Doolittle:Because of Noah's injury history, it will be interesting to see just how heavily a team is willing to invest in him. Noah did not have a great season in 2015-16. He was hurt, did not fit Fred Hoiberg's system and made an awkward conversion to coming off the bench. But Noah was first-team All-NBA center just two years ago. When healthy, he's an elite defensive anchor and rebounder as well as a great passer, and he offers every positive intangible trait a coach would want for his locker room.
Zhang:I'll say two free agents: Drummond and Whiteside.As the best rebounder in the league and an All-NBA third-team player who just finished his rookie contract, Drummond can only sign a max deal at 25 percent of the salary cap. Whiteside is a historic shot-blocker who can also score 15 PPG. With such centers diminishing in the NBA, theMiami Heat would definitely be getting a great bargain if they could sign him for less than the max.
Begley:Thanks to the influx of cash this summer, plenty of contracts signed will seem outlandish. But the smartest teams will sign young, underpaid players to deals that may seem exorbitant in the moment but turn into team-friendly contracts. Players such as Portland's Allen Crabbe (10.3 PPG, 2.7 RPG, made $947,000 this season) and Bazemore (11.6 PPG, 5.1 RPG, $2 million contract) could fit this paradigm.
