Big Ten gambles that 9 equals one big playoff boost

A few years ago, the Big Ten asked its football coaches to vote on whether they'd favor moving to a nine-game conference schedule.

Their answer was unanimous: No.

"We wanted to stay at eight [league games]," Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald said. "We liked that. We knew it. We understood it."

Like it or not, ready or not, the league is embarking on a (sort of) new path this fall. The Big Ten will initiate its nine-game conference schedule in 2016, joining the Pac-12 and Big 12 among Power 5 leagues to do so. The SEC and ACC will continue to play eight-game conference schedules.

The change is part of the Big Ten's new scheduling mandate, which directs member schools to play at least one Power 5 nonconference opponent and no FCS teams in addition to those nine conference contests. The rationale for this model: improving strength-of-schedule ratings to impress the College Football Playoff selection committee and boosting attendance and interest.

"It is, I think, a sign of the times," Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio said. "We're looking to try and move forward and play more Power 5 conferences and within the Power 5 conferences."

The increased number of high-stakes regular-season games does pose some risks when it comes to the Big Ten's postseason chances, however.

The additional losses that might come with more competitive schedules could dent a playoff contender's résumé. Perhaps it's no coincidence that the Big 12 (in 2014) and the Pac-12 (in 2015) are the only two Power 5 leagues who have missed out on a playoff spot in the event's first two seasons. Stanford coach David Shaw has been vocal about the inequality of some leagues going through a nine-game conference grind while others have stayed at eight.

So the big question is, do committee members give extra weight to teams that play nine league games instead of eight?

"It depends on whom they schedule in nonconference games," said Wisconsin athletic director Barry Alvarez, who has served on the playoff selection committee since its inception. "One of the criteria we're mandated with is strength of schedule. That's important, and a conference championship game is important.

"So we have criteria that we look at it, but that's up to each individual conference. That's not our job."

Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany has acknowledged the possibility that a league playoff contender could get knocked out by the tougher schedules. But the league is willing to gamble that the strength-of-schedule component will be worth it.

"I would say the champion of our league probably will get in the playoff because of it, provided they can get through with only one loss," said Dantonio, whose Spartans made the playoff last year despite a conference loss. "I think it's going to give us more credible conference scheduling."

The playoff isn't the only place where the nine-game schedule could impact the postseason. An extra week of conference action means a Saturday in which seven league teams are guaranteed to lose. In the past, Big Ten teams struggling to make a bowl could get to 6-6 by playing four soft nonconference games and finding two league victories. That's what Indiana did last season in qualifying for its first bowl game since 2007.

Now teams would need to beat at least three Big Ten opponents to claw their way into the postseason. And, as Fitzgerald points out, those extra losses and potential missed bowl games could lead to more coaches being fired.

"I don't know why we want to beat ourselves up one more time," Hoosiers coach Kevin Wilson said. "It's not going to be easy, but we embrace the challenge."

The nine-game league schedule presents other wrinkles. The uneven number means that half the league will play five conference home games in a season, while the other seven teams get only four. The Big Ten will rotate that by division, with the East getting the five league home games in 2016. In some years, that could affect the balance of power.

"Some teams will have an inherent advantage with five home games," Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz said. "In the years that you have that extra away game, you just have to accept it as a little bit of an extra challenge."

Every team aims to have seven total home games per season for budgetary reasons. That creates some tricky logistics in years when a team has only four conference home games and also still has the Power 5 opponent requirement. Several Big Ten athletic directors and coaches would actually prefer to play 10 conference games per year so the schedule would have more balance. The league investigated that idea but decided going to 10 games is a little too radical right now.

Coaches and administrators may sweat some of the details, but as Alvarez said, the nine-game schedule "will be great for our fans." It means fewer cupcake games and more recognizable conference opponents. After expanding to 14 teams, the Big Ten's eight-game schedule created some gaping on-field absences between programs; for example, Wisconsin and Michigan will meet this year for the first time since 2010.

Adding those kinds of matchups is important. As Delany has often said, Big Ten teams want to play against each other more, not less. (And TV executives apparently agree, as the conference just signed a record media rights deal.)

"I committed to play in the Big Ten because I know it's quality football," Badgers linebacker Vince Biegel said. "I wanted to go play in the Big House and those kinds of venues."

"I love playing against other Big Ten teams," Minnesota senior linebacker Jack Lynn said. "That's kind of our identity. It's more intense, and preparing for each team is a little more strenuous."

The Big Ten has actually gone down this road once before, albeit briefly.

The league moved to a nine-game conference schedule from 1981-84, though Ohio State and Iowa refused to play the extra conference game in 1981 and 1982. Illinois remains the only team to go 9-0 in regular-season league play, doing so during its '83 Rose Bowl season. After Ohio State won the Big Ten with a 7-2 conference record, the league ditched the nine-game plan.

"Athletic directors had some of the same issues then as they have today, especially with the five home games versus four," senior associate Big Ten commissioner Mark Rudner said.

Of course, those were much different times, with no playoff, less intense media coverage, and little emphasis on any bowl postseason besides the Rose Bowl. How will the nine-game schedule work in this era?

"I look forward to seeing how it plays out," Fitzgerald said.

So does everybody else.