ESPN Forecast: Andrew Wiggins for Rookie of Year

ByRoyce Webb ESPN logo

Wednesday, April 15, 2015

Recently Kevin Pelton discovered that one easy way to predict who would be selected Rookie of the Year was simply to add points, rebounds and assists per game.

Another way is to ask our ESPN Forecast panel who will win.

Either way, you come up with the same answer: Andrew Wiggins.

But just because we know who will win doesn't mean there aren't some other intriguing candidates. In fact, 42 percent of our panelists say that someone other than Wiggins is most deserving.

The breakdown, based on 90 votes:

Andrew Wiggins

Minnesota Timberwolves

Should win: 58 percent

Will win: 94 percent

This is the Big Splash award. Wiggins leads rookies in scoring, and among his incredible gifts is a knack for Vine-worthy skyscraping dunks. But plenty of our panelists aren't quite sure the Canadian Wolf deserves the award he's about to get. Still, odds are that the barely-20-year-old will make this honor a stepping stone toward superstardom.

Nikola Mirotic

Chicago Bulls

Should win: 23 percent

Will win: 3 percent

A couple of things work against Mirotic -- he didn't average 20 MPG until March, and he's a rookie by definition only, having starred in the Euroleague for several years. But some advanced stats, including real plus-minus, say that this is your true ROY.

Nerlens Noel

Philadelphia 76ers

Should win: 12 percent

Will win: 2 percent

Talk about a slow start. First, Noel missed his entire rookie-to-be season with an ACL injury, and then demonstrated very little offensive competence for about half of this season. But on defense, he's as good as advertised, inspiring comparisons with Hakeem Olajuwon. This element of the Sixers' long-range plan appears to be panning out.

Elfrid Payton

Orlando Magic

Should win: 6 percent

Will win: 0 percent

Marcus Smart

Boston Celtics

Should win: 1 percent

Will win: 1 percent

According to real plus-minus, each of these 20-year-old point guards has had a positive impact on both ends of the court. That's unusual for a rookie, and it means the Magic and Celtics have a pair of keepers.