Standings check: Predicting what will happen in September

We are back to work after Labor Day, so that means its time for a good long look through the MLB standings. With one month left in the regular season, we know most of the division winners, but there are still a lot of teams left fighting for a wild-card spot. We enlisted our experts to look into the standings and tell us where things are headed between now and October.[br /][br /][b]What's the first thing that jumps out to you when you look at the standings?[/b][br /][Ads /][br /]David Schoenfield:[/b]Now that the [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/mlb/team/_/name/lad/los-angeles-dodgers" ]Los Angeles Dodgers[/url] have fallen off record pace -- although they could still set the "modern" NL record with 109 wins in a 162-game season -- it's that we may not have any division races in September. Only two of the six races are up for grabs and the [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/mlb/team/_/name/chc/chicago-cubs" ]Chicago Cubs[/url] and [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/mlb/team/_/name/bos/boston-red-sox" ]Boston Red Sox[/url] remain favorites to win their divisions. I'd say this is unique, but the closest races last season were both four games (NL West and AL East).[br /][br /][b]Scott Lauber: [/b]The extreme lack of divisional drama. Given their respective leads, the [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/mlb/team/_/name/cle/cleveland-indians" ]Cleveland Indians[/url], [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/mlb/team/_/name/hou/houston-astros" ]Houston Astros[/url], [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/mlb/team/_/name/wsh/washington-nationals" ]Washington Nationals[/url] and Dodgers might as well hit snooze and wake up on Oct. 1. The Red Sox can't exactly breathe easy, but they've also played their last game against the [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/mlb/team/_/name/nyy/new-york-yankees" ]New York Yankees[/url]. What on earth would we do without those seven showdowns between the Cubs and [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/mlb/team/_/name/mil/milwaukee-brewers" ]Milwaukee Brewers[/url]?[br /][br /][b]Mark Simon:[/b]A shameless plug for [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/mlb/standings/_/sort/pointdifferential" ]our standings page[/url], which includes run differential, which is what I'll cite here. Six teams entered Monday with a run differential of 120 or higher (Dodgers, [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/mlb/team/_/name/ari/arizona-diamondbacks" ]Arizona Diamondbacks[/url], Nationals, Yankees, Indians, Astros). That might not hold, but if it does, it would be the first time there were that many such teams in a season since 2003 (also six). What does it mean? There are a [i]lot[/i] of dominant teams in 2017.[br /][br /][b]Which team currently in the postseason field is most likely to miss out? [/b][br /][br /][br/][br /][br/][br /]David Schoenfield:[/b]The [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/mlb/team/_/name/col/colorado-rockies" ]Colorado Rockies[/url] have the worst record in the NL since June 21 and have seen their wild-card lead shrink from 5 games to 1.5 games. Their pitching has struggled with an ERA over 5.00 in that span, but the offense is also scoring half a run less per game. You can't just blame the young rotation as the bullpen has also collapsed. It all means the Brewers or [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/mlb/team/_/name/stl/st-louis-cardinals" ]St. Louis Cardinals[/url] should catch the Rockies.[br /][br /][b]Scott Lauber: [/b]Sorry to be a Mile High buzzkill, but it's difficult to see the Rockies hanging on to a wild-card spot. Not only did they lose 17 of 25 games before a win Monday, but they have 11 games remaining against the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. Talk about a tough row to hoe.[br /][br /][b]Mark Simon:[/b] I'll say the [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/mlb/team/_/name/min/minnesota-twins" ]Minnesota Twins[/url], although I'll admit to being torn on this one. There are so many teams that could catch them that I think one will find a way to have a hot stretch. I don't know if the back end of the Twins' starting rotation is good enough to sustain a run that protects the wild-card lead.[br /][br /][b]Which team currently out of the postseason field is most likely to jump in? [/b][br /][br /]David Schoenfield:[/b]Seems like it's all setting up for the Cardinals to sneak in, doesn't it? The rest of the NL should have buried them while they had the chance. Seven games against the Cubs may determine the Cardinals' fate, but they also finish the season with three games at home against the Brewers -- three games that could decide that second wild card.[br /][br /][b]Scott Lauber: [/b][url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/30836/mike-trout" ]Mike Trout[/url] is the best player in baseball, right? It's impossible, then, to discount the [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/mlb/team/_/name/laa/los-angeles-angels" ]Los Angeles Angels[/url]. They are taking aim at the wild card with waiver trades for [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/28841/justin-upton" ]Justin Upton[/url] and [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/5031/brandon-phillips" ]Brandon Phillips[/url]. But with a September to remember, Trout can get them in by himself.[br /][Ads /][br /][b]Mark Simon:[/b] I picked the Yankees and Mariners as the AL wild cards before the season began and I'llstick with them, even though (to put it nicely) it seems extraordinarily unlikely. The M's pitching staff has been made of sticks and glue, having tied a major-league record for pitchers used in a season (40!). They're going against [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/6341/justin-verlander" ]Justin Verlander[/url] and[url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/32764/lance-mccullers-jr" ]Lance McCullers[/url]with [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/35305/ariel-miranda" ]Ariel Miranda[/url] and [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/30465/mike-leake" ]Mike Leake[/url] the next two days. And they play one of the five toughest remaining schedules in the major leagues. But to paraphrase Vin Scully from Game 1 of the 1988 World Series: In the year of the improbable, why can't the impossible happen? Seattle's bats carry them through.[br /][br /][b]Which team's place in the standings is most disappointing? [/b][br /][br /]David Schoenfield: [/b]It has to be the [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/mlb/team/_/name/sf/san-francisco-giants" ]San Francisco Giants[/url]. I mean, they're not even close to the [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/mlb/team/_/name/sd/san-diego-padres" ]San Diego Padres[/url] as they battle the [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/mlb/team/_/name/phi/philadelphia-phillies" ]Philadelphia Phillies[/url] and [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/mlb/team/_/name/chw/chicago-white-sox" ]Chicago White Sox[/url] for next year's No. 1 pick. At 30 games under .500, they've been so bad, that you wonder how they can even turn this around for next season, especially given that injuries aren't really a significant reason for their record.[br /][br /][b]Scott Lauber: [/b]Pity the [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/mlb/team/_/name/kc/kansas-city-royals" ]Kansas City Royals[/url], who made the calculated decision to hang on to [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/30993/eric-hosmer" ]Eric Hosmer[/url], [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/29999/mike-moustakas" ]Mike Moustakas[/url], [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/29416/lorenzo-cain" ]Lorenzo Cain[/url] and [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/6352/jason-vargas" ]Jason Vargas[/url] for one more run at October. Instead, they trail five teams in the race for the second wild card and face the probability of losing the aforementioned players in free agency.[br /][br /][b]Mark Simon:[/b] The Giants being in the NL West basement is the most unlikely and most disappointing (who would have predicted the starting pitching to be this poor). The Giants could be a 100-loss team for the first time since going 62-100 in 1985 (a team whose ace was current broadcaster Mike Krukow). But perk up Giants fans, the precedent there is good. The next five Giants teams after the 100-loss squad finished above .500, including two that made the postseason.[br /][br /][b]Which team's place in the standings is most surprising (in a good way)? [/b][br /][br /][br/][br /][br/][br /]David Schoenfield:[/b]The Twins. Remember, they had the worst record in the league last season at 59-103. They were three games under .500 at the July 31 trade deadline and even traded their closer. That seemed like a smart move as even the 50-53 record appeared misleading as they had been outscored by 72 runs. Instead, they went 20-10 in August, going plus-57 runs, and moved into the wild-card lead.[br /][br /][b]Scott Lauber: [/b]The correct answer is the Twins. Before the All-Star break, team officials admitted pleasant surprise at their place in the standings. Well, it's six weeks later and the Twins are not only sticking around, but they are holding the second AL wild card.[br /][br /][b]Mark Simon:[/b] It's easy to pick the Twins, but I'll go a different way. Given how long Mike Trout was out and the state of their pitching staff, it's amazing that the Angels survived to be where they are. This team has had a lot of unsung heroes. My colleague, Meghan O'Donnell, did some spreadsheet work the other day and found that [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/32155/cj-cron" ]C.J. Cron[/url] and [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/29976/ben-revere" ]Ben Revere[/url] ranked top-three in the majors in biggest increase in wins above replacement from first half to second half. Who would have figured that?[br /][br /][b]What is the one thing you are most closely following over the final month?[/b][br /][Ads /][br /]David Schoenfield:[/b]The wild-card races are sort of fun, but the major awards are still up for grabs: [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/30981/corey-kluber" ]Corey Kluber[/url] versus [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/30948/chris-sale" ]Chris Sale[/url] for AL Cy Young, [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/28976/max-scherzer" ]Max Scherzer[/url] versus [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/28963/clayton-kershaw" ]Clayton Kershaw[/url] in the NL, [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/31662/jose-altuve" ]Jose Altuve[/url] versus the field for AL MVP, and an NL MVP race that has half a dozen strong candidates. If [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/30583/giancarlo-stanton" ]Giancarlo Stanton[/url] hits 62, does he win even though the Marlins will miss the postseason?[br /][br /][b]Scott Lauber: [/b]One word: Injuries. Can [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/30951/bryce-harper" ]Bryce Harper[/url] get healthy for the Nats? Can Clayton Kershaw stay healthy for the Dodgers? Will the Indians be able to count on [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/28563/andrew-miller" ]Andrew Miller[/url] ... or the Astros on [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/32764/lance-mccullers-jr" ]Lance McCullers[/url]... or the Red Sox on [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/28958/david-price" ]David Price[/url]? The answers will go far in deciding what happens in October.[br /][br /][b]Mark Simon:[/b] The AL wild-card race is wonderful. I'm rooting for the chaos of a three-way tie (including the Mariners, of course) just to give us something we haven't seen before. And if I have to pick who those teams are, I'll go Angels, Mariners and Orioles.[br /][br /][b]What date will the Dodgers hit the 100-win mark?[/b][br /][br /]David Schoenfield:[/b]September 18 at Philly.[br /][br /][b]Scott Lauber: [/b]Sept. 15: 10 days later than the 2001 Mariners and 11 days off the 1998 Yankees' pace, but still darn impressive.[br /][br /][b]Mark Simon:[/b] September 18 in Philadelphia. The Dodgers have hit a skid right when their schedule gets a little tougher (Diamondbacks, Rockies, Giants, Nationals). That will wake them up -- a little bit. But I think they're going 7-6 the next 13, which sets them up to get the 100th against the hapless Phillies.[br /][br /][b]Which AL team will end up with home-field advantage?[/b][br /][br /]David Schoenfield:[/b]I'll say the Indians run down the Astros. With seven games against the White Sox and three against the Tigers and a rotation clicking on all cylinders, they'll stay hot through September.[br /][br /][b]Scott Lauber: [/b]If it comes down to the final weekend of the season -- and it very well might -- the Astros will be facing the Red Sox at Fenway Park while the Indians host the White Sox. Advantage, Cleveland.[br /][br /][b]Mark Simon:[/b] Though the schedule would seem to favor the Indians because their remaining home-road balance is considerably better than the Astros, a three-game cushion is still a lot to make up against an Astros team that can hit better than anyone and can put out a top-end starting pitcher most nights. I'll stick with the Astros here.