Who are fantasy winners and losers in Derrick Rose trade?
Derrick Rose was traded from the Bulls to the Knicks on Wednesdayand will be just 28 years old when he starts a new chapter of his NBA career next season. For many, that's a prime age for peak production.
Not Rose, who has never been the same MVP-caliber player since tearing his ACL in the first round of the playoffs in 2012.
The numbers are staggering, eye-opening and even a little depressing.
While Rose did manage to play in 66 games this past season and 51 the season prior -- showing at least some durability after two lost seasons -- he remains a huge injury risk going forward, no matter the team he plays on.
And on top of that, he hasn't played 30 minutes or more in 10 straight games since the 2011-12 season.
If Rose does stay healthy and play somewhere around 65-75 games next season, the question isn't so much how he'll do as much as it's how he'll fit in with Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis.
ESPN's Kevin Pelton points out that Rose has used at least 27 percent of his team's plays in every season since his rookie year in 2008-09. Given his shooting struggles since the injury, Rose might be wise to ditch some of his scoring and drive for more of a distributing role, letting Anthony and Porzingis rack up the points.
That is probably a long shot, though, as scoring and driving to the basket is in Rose's basketball DNA. As you can see in the chart above, his assist numbers have dropped markedly in recent years, which is another reason to doubt any shift in his on-court approach next season.
If Rose remains the score-first point guard he's always been in the league, and continues to have a usage rate in the 25-27 percentrange, that could negatively impact the opportunities and fantasy production of players like Anthony and Porzingis, who ranked first and second on the Knicks in both points and shots per game last season. Anthony averaged 21.8 PPG and 18.2 field goal attempts per game, while Porzingis posted 14.3 PPG on 12.3 FGA per game.
Rose ranked 148th overall in ESPN's Player Rater last season, and 38th among point guards -- right behind the likes of Shaun Livingston, Elfrid Payton and Mario Chalmers.
Given Rose's minimal impact from the point guard position at a number of key categories like steals, assists and 3-pointers, you should look at him as more of a late flier than anything else at this stage in his career.
More than Rose, the bigger story here might be Jimmy Butler. If you recall, Butler took over in the games Rose sat out in 2015-16, and the numbers show all you need to know about that.
The subject of trade rumors himself, Butler becomes the go-to guy and No. 1 scoring option in Chicago without Rose -- provided that he isn't dealt away. And considering how Butler was already a top-25 fantasy player with Rose, it's not out of the realm of possibility to consider him as a late first-rounder or early second-rounder on draft day.
