College Football Playoff, bowl projections following Week 14

The regular season is over and, except for the 18 teams playing in their conference championship games, the résumés are complete.

Rivalry Week didn't provide many surprises among the College Football Playoff contenders, while a handful of other teams reached the coveted six-win mark to achieve bowl eligibility.(Note: An additional bowl game will be added to the slate since there are 82 eligible teams.) That provides more clarity to the postseason picture than we've had previously, but there is still a lot that needs to be sorted out.

As with last season's inaugural 12-team CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.

From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year's Six bowls, with the national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Miami's Hard Rock Stadium.

All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 36-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.

We're here for all of it.

ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out.

Jump to a section:br/>Playoff picks| Quarterfinalsbr/>Semis, title game| Bowl season

College Football Playoff

First-round games (at campus sites)

Friday, Dec. 19

>8 p.m., ABC, ESPN

Saturday, Dec. 20

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Bonagura: No. 12 North Texas at No. 5 Texas A&M

>Schlabach: No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Oregon

Bonagura: No. 11 Virginia at No. 6 Oregon

>Schlabach: No. 11 Virginia at No. 6 Ole Miss

Bonagura: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Ole Miss

>Schlabach: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M

Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma

>Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma

First-round breakdown

Bonagura:A week ago, the ACC doomsday scenario of getting left out of the College Football Playoff seemed unlikely, but now that five-loss Duke has qualified for the ACC title game, it is very much in play. Should the Blue Devils beat Virginia to win the conference, they would be part of a discussion for what amounts to two spots among conference champions outside of the Big 12, Big Ten and SEC. Presumably, one of those spots would go to the American champion, the winner of North Texas (11-1) vs. No. 24 Tulane (10-2).

After that, there are a few combinations to consider, but if James Madison (11-1) beats Troy (8-4) to win the Sun Belt, it's hard to see the committee passing on a 12-win team in favor of 8-5 Duke. The other team that could be considered is UNLV (10-2), which has a chance to avenge one of its two losses of the season at Boise State in the Mountain West title game.

Schlabach:Texas' 27-17 upset of Texas A&M on Friday night shook up my 12-team bracket from a week ago and set up plenty of intriguing storylines going into Championship Week.

I dropped the Aggies four spots after they suffered their first loss of the season. Losing to a rival on the road isn't all that bad, but it's more about Texas A&M's overall résumé. Texas was the first true CFP contender from the SEC that Texas A&M had played all season. Yes, the Aggies' 41-40 win at Notre Dame earlier this season is holding up well, but that alone is probably not enough to keep them in the top four.

Virginia is now my projected ACC champion after SMU fell 38-35 at Cal on Saturday. The Cavaliers took down rival Virginia Tech 27-7 on Saturday to finish 10-2 after going 5-7 last season. As Kyle outlined above, a win by the five-loss Blue Devils over Virginia in Saturday's ACC championship game would make things really interesting.

CFP quarterfinals

Wednesday, Dec. 31

CFP Quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic

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>Bonagura:No. 10 Alabama vs. No. 2 Indiana

>Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech

Thursday, Jan. 1

CFP Quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl

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>Bonagura:No. 5 Texas A&M vs. No. 4 Texas Tech

>Schlabach: No. 10 Alabama vs. No. 2 Indiana

CFP Quarterfinal at theRose Bowl Game presented by Prudential

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>Bonagura:No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Ohio State

>Schlabach:No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Ohio State

CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl

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>Bonagura:No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 3 Georgia

>Schlabach: No. 11 Virginia vs. No. 3 Georgia

Quarterfinals breakdown

Bonagura:This take could end up being wildly off base, but every team in the top 10 seems capable of making a playoff run.

The most interesting matchup in this hypothetical quarterfinal round might be Texas Tech vs. Texas A&M, showcasing the types of rosters Texas donor money can facilitate in different parts of the state.

Indiana vs. Alabama would pit the Hoosiers against two coaches familiar with Bloomington. Crimson Tide coach Kalen DeBoer and defensive coordinator Kane Wommack were on the Hoosiers staff together in 2019. Oregon vs. Georgia would mean Dan Lanning going against one of his mentors (Kirby Smart) at a place he was previously the defensive coordinator. Ohio State vs. Notre Dame would feature two of the hottest teams in the sport.

Schlabach:At this point, I'm assuming eight teams have all but clinched spots in the CFP, regardless of what happens in the conference title games: Ohio State, Indiana, Georgia, Texas Tech, Oregon, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Oklahoma.

That leaves essentially two more at-large spots because two are reserved for conference champions. (I'm going with Virginia and Tulane as of now.) Notre Dame, Alabama, BYU, Miami, Vanderbilt and Texas might be fighting for those spots.

Is Notre Dame safely in the bracket? The Fighting Irish are playing awfully well as of late, but I'm not sure blowouts of struggling Syracuse and Stanford will carry much weight with the selection committee. Along with losing to the Aggies at home, the Irish fell 27-24 at Miami in their opener. Their best wins came against USC, Navy and Pittsburgh, which floundered down the stretch.

Miami might be playing as well as Notre Dame, so will head-to-head results finally be a convincing factor for the committee? The Hurricanes fell to Louisville and SMU, and their earlier win against South Florida doesn't look as good as it once did.

CFP semifinals, national championship game

Thursday, Jan. 8

CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl

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>Bonagura:No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Ohio State

>Schlabach: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Indiana

Friday, Jan. 9

CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

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>Bonagura:No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Indiana

>Schlabach: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Monday, Jan. 19

CFP National Championship

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>Bonagura:No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio State

>Schlabach: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio State

National championship breakdown

Bonagura:One thing to consider is how the Big Ten title game might affect seedings. Ohio State and Indiana are the consensus top two teams right now, but will that change come seeding time?

Either way, the loser likely won't drop below No. 3, meaning they will stay on opposite sides of the bracket to allow for a rematch in the title game.

Schlabach:I'm going to continue to roll with my top four seeds: Ohio State, Indiana, Georgia and now Texas Tech.

Georgia didn't look great in its 16-9 victory at Georgia Tech on Saturday. QuarterbackGunner Stocktonhad one of his worst games of the season, and now the Bulldogs have to play their nemesis, Alabama, in the SEC championship game Saturday. Do the Tide have to win to get into the field?

Ohio State looks like the strongest team after winning 27-9 at Michigan on Saturday. Ryan Day finally got that monkey off his back, and with Julian Sayin playing well, Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate will be problems for any defense they play.

Complete bowl-season schedule

Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl

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>Bonagura:Jackson State vs. South Carolina State

>Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State

LA Bowl

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>Bonagura:Arizona State vs. UNLV

>Schlabach: Washington vs. Boise State

Tuesday, Dec. 16

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl

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>Bonagura:UConn vs. Old Dominion

>Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Troy

Wednesday, Dec. 17

StaffDNA Cure Bowl

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>Bonagura:Florida International vs. Coastal Carolina

>Schlabach: Delaware vs. Old Dominion

68 Ventures Bowl

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>Bonagura: Georgia Southern vs.Central Michigan

>Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Central Michigan

Friday, Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl

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>Bonagura:Arkansas State vs. Missouri State

>Schlabach: Georgia Southern vs. East Carolina

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl

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>Bonagura:South Florida vs. NC State

>Schlabach: UConn vs. Wake Forest

Monday, Dec. 22

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

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>Bonagura:Toledo vs. San Diego State

>Schlabach: Ohio vs. San Diego State

Tuesday, Dec. 23

Boca Raton Bowl

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>Bonagura:Louisiana Tech vs. Louisiana

>Schlabach:Florida International vs. Miami (Ohio)

New Orleans Bowl

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>Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. Troy

>Schlabach: Kennesaw State vs. Southern Miss

Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl

>Ford Center at The Star (

>Bonagura:Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss

>Schlabach: Arkansas State vs. Louisiana Tech

Wednesday, Dec. 24

Sheraton Hawai'i Bowl

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>Bonagura:Hawai'i vs. Washington State

>Schlabach: Hawai'i vs. California

Friday, Dec. 26

GameAbove Sports Bowl

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>Bonagura:Penn State vs. Western Michigan

>Schlabach: Northwestern vs. Western Michigan

Rate Bowl

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>Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Northwestern

>Schlabach: Cincinnati vs. Penn State

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl

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>Bonagura: Texas State vs. Utah State

>Schlabach: Texas State vs. Kansas State

Saturday, Dec. 27

Go Bowling Military Bowl

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>Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Navy

>Schlabach: Louisville vs. Navy

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl

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>Bonagura: Duke vs. Minnesota

>Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota

Wasabi Fenway Bowl

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>Bonagura: Clemson vs. Army

>Schlabach: NC State vs. South Florida

Pop-Tarts Bowl

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>Bonagura: Miami vs. Houston

>Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Houston

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl

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>Bonagura: Ohio vs. Fresno State

>Schlabach: Toledo vs. Fresno State

Isleta New Mexico Bowl

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>Bonagura: New Mexico vs. Miami (Ohio)

>Schlabach: New Mexico vs. Washington State

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl

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>Bonagura:Georgia Tech vs. Tennessee

>Schlabach: Miami vs. Vanderbilt

Kinder's Texas Bowl

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>Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Tulane

>Schlabach: TCU vs. North Texas

Monday, Dec. 29

JLab Birmingham Bowl

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>Bonagura: Boise State vs. Memphis

>Schlabach: UTSA vs. James Madison

Tuesday, Dec. 30

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl

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>Bonagura: James Madison vs. Kennesaw State

>Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Western Kentucky

Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl

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>Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Missouri

>Schlabach: Nebraska vs. LSU

Valero Alamo Bowl

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>Bonagura: BYU vs. USC

>Schlabach: BYU vs. USC

Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl

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>Bonagura: Illinois vs. Vanderbilt

>Schlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl

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>Bonagura: SMU vs. Washington

>Schlabach: Clemson vs. Arizona State

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl

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>Bonagura: Michigan vs. Texas

>Schlabach: Michigan vs. Texas

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl

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>Bonagura: Iowa vs. Utah

>Schlabach: Illinois vs. Utah

Friday, Jan. 2

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

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>Bonagura: Kansas State vs. East Carolina

>Schlabach: UNLV vs. Army

AutoZone Liberty Bowl

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>Bonagura:TCU vs. California

>Schlabach: Iowa State vs. Memphis

Duke's Mayo Bowl

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>Bonagura:Louisville vs. LSU

>Schlabach: Duke vs. Missouri

Holiday Bowl

>Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)

>8 p.m., Fox

>Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Arizona

>Schlabach: SMU vs. Arizona

Bowl TBD (former Bahamas Bowl)

>Site, date TBA

>Bonagura: UTSA vs. Delaware

>Schlabach: Utah State vs. Missouri State

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