Inside the 'guessing' game of Kiffin's decision, plus a dominant Thanksgiving for NFL underdogs

Lane Kiffin's exit from Ole Misson Sunday triggered a guessing game at sportsbooks, with oddsmakers trying to figure out how much to downgrade the Rebels without the mercurial coach heading into the College Football Playoff.

Opinions varied, but the consensus range among four oddsmakers was that Kiffin was worth upwards of four points.

"We're guessing," said Chris Bennett, sportsbook director at Circa in Las Vegas, "but we definitely think Lane Kiffin's presence is significant for the Ole Miss team rating."

The Rebels were 25-1 to win the national championship before Kiffin announced he would be taking a job at LSUand would not coach Ole Miss in the playoff. The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas dropped the Rebels' title odds to 40-1 on Sunday after the news was made official.

"The challenge now is understanding the full extent of the impact his departure will have," Joey Feazel, who oversees football odds for Caesars Sportsbook, told ESPN. "It could be minimal or it could be significant depending on which personnel and staff follow him out the door. The point spread will certainly be affected, but the bigger shift may come in offensive efficiency. With a defensive-minded coach likely taking the reins, expect the total to trend lower."

Veteran Las Vegas oddsmaker Chris Andrews was on the low end and wasn't planning to adjust his power ratings on Ole Miss much with Kiffin departing, "assuming someone on the staff takes the reins ... 1-1.5 points at most."

"Closer to one unless the market dictates otherwise," Andrews, the sportsbook director at the South Point, told ESPN.

Ed Salmons, a Las Vegas oddsmaker for 40-plus years, had seven teams above Ole Miss in his power ratings ahead of Kiffin's departure. He was planning to drop the Rebels to 12th without Kiffin.

"Let's say Alabama loses [in the SEC championship game] and they get matched up against Ole Miss [in the CFP first round], Bama would go in there favored," Salmons of the SuperBook said, adding that the Rebels would have been favored over the Crimson Tide if Kiffin were still the coach.

"Initially, you're just guessing," Salmons said, "but when these coaches just outright leave, nothing good usually happens."

Thanksgiving underdogs ravage bettors

All four NFL underdogs -- the Green Bay Packers, Dallas Cowboys, Cincinnati Bengals and Chicago Bears -- won outright Thursday and Friday, resulting in a Thanksgiving thrashing for bettors and chaos in a high-stakes survivor contest in Las Vegas.

It's the first time since the NFL expanded to three Thanksgiving games in 2006 that all three underdogs won straight up on the holiday, and it's the first time an underdog won outright on Black Friday since the league added that game in 2023.

Circa Survivor, an NFL survivor contest with a $1,000 buy-in and an $18.6 million prize pool, requires contestants to pick two outright winners during Thanksgiving week, one from the Thursday-Friday games and the second from the Sunday-Monday slate. Entering Thanksgiving, 898 entries were still alive; after the Bears finished off the Philadelphia Eagles on Friday, only 49 entries were left. Philadelphia was the most selected team in the contest for the Thursday-Friday slate.

Two contestants failed to submit their pick by the deadline for the week and were eliminated.

Circa's higher-stakes survivor contest -- the $100,000 per entry Grandissimo -- ended as a result of the Thanksgiving/Black Friday upsets. The remaining six players split the $6.9 million prize pool evenly, each taking home $1.15 million.

NFL Odds & Ends

• The Carolina Panthers' outright win as 9.5-point underdogs against the Los Angeles Rams was tied for the second-largest upset of the season, trailing only the Panthers' (13.5) victory over the Green Bay Packers in Week 9. Carolina has won seven games straight up as an underdog, the most by any team through November of any season in the Super Bowl era, per ESPN Research.


• Excluding Week 10 when the Kansas City Chiefs were on bye, the reigning Super Bowl favorite has lost four weeks in a row: Chiefs (Week 9), Chiefs (Week 11), Eagles (Week 12) and Rams (Week 13).


• The most popular player prop Sunday morning at DraftKings was Cleveland Browns quarterback Shedeur Sanders to throw two-plus touchdowns against the San Francisco 49ers.


• Going into the season, the Chiefs were -450 to make the playoffs, according to ESPN BET odds. Before their Thanksgiving loss to the Cowboys, the Chiefs were -220 for the postseason, and going into Sunday of Week 13, they were -115 to make the playoffs, their longest odds of the season.


• Underdogs went 9-5 against the spread and 7-7 straight up through Sunday afternoon, including the Thanksgiving and Black Friday games. Underdogs had been 9-2 ATS and 7-4 SU through the early Sunday slate before all three favorites covered in the late slate.

College football odds & ends

Conference championship games

(Consensus opening lines)

CUSA: Kennesaw Statevs. Jacksonville State -1.5, 57.5

Sun Belt: Troyat James Madison-21, 47.5

American: North Texas-3, 66.5 vs.Tulane

Mountain West: UNLVvs.Boise State-1.5, 56.5

Big 12: BYUvs.Texas Tech-12.5, 50.5

MAC: Miami (OH)vs.Western Michigan-2.5, 43

SEC: Georgia-1.5, 47.5 vs.Alabama

ACC: Dukevs.Virginia-2.5, 57.5

Big Ten: Indianavs.Ohio State-5.5, 48.5

• Salmons of the SuperBook said Notre Damewould be "more than a field goal but less than a touchdown favorite" over Miamiif the two playoff contenders played on a neutral site this week.


• Texas Tech covered the spread in 11 of 12 regular-season games, becoming the first power-conference team to finish the regular season at 11-1 or better against the spread since 2012 Northwestern.


• Virginia will play Duke in the ACC championship game. At 100-1, the Cavaliers would be the biggest preseason long shot to win the ACC in over 15 years.