MLB trade deadline 2026: Early intel from Olney, Passan

The MLB trade deadline is a little later than usual this summer (6 p.m. ET on Aug. 3) and there is a logjam of teams at the edge of contention in both leagues, leaving the forecast for this trade season a bit hazy.

With less than two weeks for teams to make up their minds on their deadline direction, ESPN MLB insiders Buster Olney and Jeff Passan offer up the latest they are hearing and examine how this trade season could play out -- from the positions with the most impact players available to the names and teams that could rock the deadline.

The most interesting theme entering this trade deadline is______

Olney: How much talent will actually be available, with so many teams on the fence about adding, dealing veterans or holding -- and when those final decisions are made before Aug. 3, how frenzied will the rush for deals get in the last 72 hours? The list of actual declared unloaders is pretty short right now: Giants, Mets and Rockies, with a few other teams more subtly angling toward swapping players. But for so many teams, mostly in the American League, performance over the next seven to 10 days will be pivotal.

Passan: How the run-up to the trade deadline feels almost like a pennant race. Teams are treating the games between now and the end of the month with much more of a must-win tack than is typical for this time of year because they understand just how enticing it is for their front offices to pivot to joining the Giants, Mets and Rockies. With so few teams committing to unloading, there is a rare opportunity to build a strong market. It's why the prospect of Mason Miller moving is so tantalizing for a Padres team that still harbors postseason hope: They could leverage the lack of availability for other elite closers into a bonanza of a return.

The strongest player position available at this deadline is______

Olney: The starting pitchers, undoubtedly. So many clubs are looking for a right-handed hitter, with very few apparent options, but the teams most aggressively in need of a starting pitcher -- we're looking at you, Cubs, Phillies and Braves -- should have a lot of good options. Among the declared unloaders, there areFreddy Peralta, Clay Holmes and Robbie Ray, with the possibility that many others join them.

Passan: The starting pitchers -- but don't forget about the relief arms. While the Red Sox have played into keeping Aroldis Chapman, and Josh Hader's no-trade clause complicates any deal with him, the Mets have four very good relievers available (Luke Weaver, A.J. Minter, Brooks Raley, Huascar Brazoban) and the Giants can go lefty (Erik Miller, Sam Hentges) or righty (JT Brubaker, Caleb Kilian). If the Padres enter the fray, Miller and Adrian Morejon might be the best two available. And there are plenty of under-the-radar arms (Ryan Zeferjahn, Elvis Alvarado, Brock Burke, Brennan Bernardino) capable of pitching in high-leverage situations for playoff teams.

The weakest position available is______

Olney: The Mariners, Yankees, Phillies, Red Sox, Braves and Dodgers could all use a right-handed hitter (for L.A., a right-handed-hitting catcher, with the uncertainty about Will Smith's health), but even as more teams drop out of contention, it doesn't appear many options will emerge.

The one team that could change that equation dramatically would be the Astros, who have a bunch of interesting players who would shift everything; some rival executives believe Houston could absolutely crush it in this market if they dangled Jeremy Pena, Isaac Paredes and others. Houston went into play Tuesday six games under .500, and according to Fangraphs, the Astros' odds for making the playoffs stand at 16%. But so far, all the rhetoric coming out of Houston is about charging ahead.

Passan:Right-handed bats. Certainly, there are possibilities that attractive ones move. But so many of the potential players worth targeting (Byron Buxton, Shea Langeliers, Hunter Goodman, Willson Contreras, Pena, Paredes) are, at the moment, available only for an outlandish return. Should the Angels decide to deal Zach Neto, that would at least bring one impact type to the party. But as it stands now, there is not a single impactful right-handed bat who is certain to move by Aug. 3.

Two weeks before the deadline, the teams we know will be dealing top veterans are______

Olney: Giants,Mets, Rockies, Reds, Angels and Royals. The Nationals are listening, and they could be in a sell-and-buy posture.

Passan:Buster has it covered, with the Giants, Mets and Rockies all hanging for sale signs, the Angels still figuring out how much they're going to offload, and the Royals and Reds inclined to hold on to their most valuable players. The A's aren't going to move core players unless they're overwhelmed with an offer. The in-between teams worth keeping an eye on: Detroit, San Diego, Toronto, Houston, Washington, St. Louis and Arizona. The volume of moves at the deadline will depend heavily on their places in the standings.

Two weeks before the deadline, the teams we know will be adding aggressively are the______

Olney: Dodgers, White Sox, Cubs, Brewers, Braves, Phillies, Yankees and Rays.

Passan: Brewers, White Sox, Cubs, Phillies, Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Rays and Mariners. The Red Sox's winning ways could force their front office into adding more aggressively than anticipated. The Marlins and Twins will be opportunistic. Don't sleep on the Orioles.

The______hold the key to whether this trade deadline will be action-packed or a summer dud

Olney: The Padres could shake up the deadline if they decide to sincerely listen on Mason Miller, but at the moment, the decision that could change everything belongs to the Tigers. They are playing at a 100-win pace since June 1 and their instinct is to try to win, but they have no margin for error over the next 10 days.

Manager A.J. Hinch has described what's to come for the Tigers as a daily Game 7, and that's about right. If the Tigers falter and go 3-7 over the next 10 days, Detroit could drop Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize into the trade market and the baseball world would go wild.

Passan:Tigers. At the end of the day, this deadline will be defined by one thing: Does Skubal move? The Tigers have been patient. They've chipped away at their deficit and moved to within 5 games of the final wild-card spot. Between that and making a run at a winnable AL Central -- and with Troy Melton back and shoving, and Jackson Jobe not far behind -- there is a real case for keeping Skubal. And yet the benefit to the 2027, 2028 and 2029 Tigers -- and beyond -- in trading Skubal would be enormous.

It's a tough choice. Do you play for now knowing the AL is as weak as it's going to be for years? Or do you acknowledge that the gains to be made from moving Skubal (and Mize) are potentially franchise-changing?

The one thing we'll all be talking about after the deadline passes on Aug. 3 is ______

Olney: How the Dodgers got better again, by adding a catcher or a reliever or a Skubal or something else, with Blake Snell, Shohei Ohtani, Edwin Diaz and Tyler Glasnow all working their way back from injuries.

As one executive said this week, the Dodgers are hell-bent on becoming the first NL team ever to go back-to-back-to-back. With that organizational desire, the possibility of a new economic system in the future and a farm system flush with tradable assets, the Dodgers are going to do all they can to get back over the next two weeks.

Passan:How, for all the rhetoric, not a whole lot happened. This is a dangerous thing to predict, particularly with the standings still cramped. But that is part of the calculus: If 100 games weren't enough to separate the masses, how likely are 10 games to make a whole lot of difference? Not very, which leaves us in the same place we are now.

And considering how many organizations would get flayed for punting before they're actually out of it -- the 1997 White Sox gave the perfect lesson on that -- the easiest play is to hold firm. Perhaps this is a misread and a few canny teams seize on the opportunity to take advantage of such a thin group of available players. But history suggests that won't be the case and that the deadline madness of last year won't be replicated.br/]