Domestic threat forecast predicts risk of violence stemming from general election fraud narratives

CHICAGO (WLS) -- Oregon and Washington state ballot drop boxes were firebombed early Monday morning, one of many domestic terrorism threats that federal agencies, including the FBI, have warned about for months.

Now, a little more than a week before the general election, the alerts seems to be turning into reality.

ABC7 Chicago is now streaming 24/7. Click here to watch

Last month, the ABC 7 I-Team first reported on a federal intelligence warning that domestic violent extremists could target ballot boxes and other election equipment soft targets. In the early morning hours on the northwest coast, those fears came true.

The news of the ballot box fires comes as the I-Team has obtained a copy of a new, and wider warning released by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security's Office of Intelligence and Analysis Monday morning, centered on threat actors potentially leveraging claims of election fraud to drive general election-related violence in the weeks to come.

"Some individuals are calling for violence as a response to election fraud narratives, primarily targeting election officials and populations that threat actors perceive as threatening the integrity of the 2024 general election," the federal bulletin reads. "Some individuals motivated by this narrative have stated their intent online to intimidate voters or elections staff through surveillance of election infrastructure or personnel, including by armed individuals."

The threat assessment was echoed in a dire assessment by the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency's Director Jen Easterly last Friday.

"Election officials are facing very real physical threats, threats of harassment, violence, swatting, bullying, threats to election officials of both parties and their families, largely stemming from unfounded claims that the 2020 election did not represent the will of the American people," Easterly said.

2024 VOTER GUIDE: What you need to know to vote in Illinois, Indiana and Wisconsin

Election experts and federal authorities say misinformation is playing a role in indoctrinating threat actors.

"Definitely misinformation is a part of that," said cybersecurity professor Jason Perry, Ph.D., who teaches at Lewis University. "And the people who create and spread misinformation, they know exactly what kind of messages, not just words but video images, will trigger people who are, you know, potentially vulnerable to being pushed into violent action because of their beliefs and things that they that they believe."

The investigation into who firebombed ballot boxes in the Pacific Northwest early Monday is ongoing. Authorities suspect the same attacker set the ballot boxes ablaze in Oregon and Washington, 10 miles apart.

The crimes fit the M.O. of domestic violent extremists that federal officials are concerned about.

There have been limited federal arrests since the last election involving violent actions and threats by people identified as extremists on election officials.

At least 12 people have been sentenced in relation to violent threats made toward election officials or volunteers during the 2020 general election and the 2022 midterm election.

Despite the warnings, federal election officials are confident the Nov. 5 election will be secure.

"We know that election officials have been preparing for this election for years," Easterly said. "They've been doing training, exercising and they are prepared and have contingency plans in place for the full range of disruptions."