Judging overreactions to the first wave of 2026 NHL free agency

The champagne hadn't even been mopped up from the Carolina Hurricanes' Stanley Cup celebration when the NHL offseason hit warp speed.

It wasn't just the incredible volume of trades, signings and multiple offer sheets. It was that the NHL, for the first time, had the kind of drama-filled offseason that other sports experience, filled with trade requests, contract squabbles, empowered players voiding deals and all the messy details leaking out about all of it.

It's been awesome. Every day, a new debate among fans.

Here are 10 overreactions to the 2026 offseason that we judge to be absolutely reasonable or totally misguided. Enjoy!

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Pat Verbeek should be fired

At the time of this writing, the clock was still sticking on the Philadelphia Flyers' offer sheet on Anaheim Ducks center Leo Carlsson, to the tune of five years and $18 million annually.

If Anaheim matches the offer, its salary cap management is in shambles, leaving the team neither the space to re-sign Cutter Gauthier nor add an impact defenseman to a downgraded group. If Anaheim lets Carlsson walk, it stays out of salary cap hell and gets four first-round picks, which the Ducks could hopefully use to fill a gaping hole at center in a conference where center depth is a necessity.

But that's all academic. The real issue here is that GM Pat Verbeek and vice president of hockey operations Jeff Solomon, who handles negotiations for the team, left the franchise open to being raided by a team like the Flyers.

Look at all the teams that signed their potentially vulnerable pending RFAs with months to spare and money saved:

• Edmonton signed top defenseman Evan Bouchard last June before he could be given an offer sheet, locking him in at $10.5 million AAV.


• Montreal signed star defenseman Lane Hutson at an $8.85 million AAV last October.


• Utah signed center Logan Cooley at a $10 million AAV last October.


• Los Angeles signed defenseman Brandt Clarke at a $7.4 million AAV in June.


• Montreal locked up Ivan Demidov a year before restricted free agency at a $9.15 million AAV on July 1.

And so on.

But that's not how the Ducks operate. They grind. They try to win the war of attrition in talks, which is why Jamie Drysdale, Mason McTavish and Trevor Zegras all missed training camp time during RFA contract talks in seasons past. All three are no longer in Anaheim.

The Ducks also don't like to hand out contracts like the one Carlsson signed, where $83.5 million of his $90 million will be paid out in buyout-proof signing bonuses. The combined signing bonus money on the Drysdale, McTavish and Zegras extensions? Zero.

Anaheim had an exclusive negotiating window with Carlsson for several months, couldn't get anything done and then totally miscalculated how thirsty the market was going to be for a 21-year-old franchise center, given the rise of the salary cap and the lackluster unrestricted free agent crop. In January, Verbeek told Victory+ that the team "tabled" its talks with Carlsson and other RFAs. "We want their focus to be on the playoffs," he said.

Hope this was worth that second-round playoff exit.

But the real kick in the pants here for Ducks fans is that Carlsson expressed a willingness to get something done last summer, and at a significantly lower price than what Anaheim or Philadelphia is going to pay. During a player-on-player interview with Elias Pettersson on Daily Faceoff, he said "I'd take that, for sure" when asked about an eight-year deal with a $9.5 million cap hit. That's nearly half of what his new contract is going to pay annually!

The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. As one NHL executive put it: "I really think it's a fireableoffense."

Consider that the Ducks could have probably landed Carlsson at eight years and $100 million last summer, based on what he said he was willing to agree on. Now, it's $90 million on a five-year term. If his next contract runs around three years and builds on that AAV ... well, the Ducks' front office just cost the Samueli family tens of millions of dollars that it didn't need to spend on a single player.

Plus, don't look now, but that wave of young stars who were supposed to power the Ducks for a decade has crashed. Drysdale, McTavish, Zegras and Olen Zellweger -- traded to Buffalo -- are gone. Carlsson could be gone. The Ducks have some young key core players -- Gauthier, Jackson LaCombe, Beckett Sennecke -- but suddenly perhaps not enough of them. There's certainly an argument to be made that Verbeek has the franchise trending in the wrong direction.

Leo Carlsson isn't worth $18 million per year

The reaction from many NHL fans when the Flyers put an offer sheet on Leo Carlsson: "$18 million annually for a guy whose career high is 67 points?!"

Barring the pending contracts for RFAs Jason Robertson and Connor Bedard, the 21-year-old Carlsson will have the highest cap hit of any player in the NHL next season. More than Kirill Kaprizov ($17 million), whose career high is 108 points. More than Leon Draisaitl ($14 million), whose career high is 128 points. More than Nathan MacKinnon ($12.604 million), whose career high is 140 points.

I mention MacKinnon for a reason. His career high after three seasons was 63 points, which he tallied as a rookie in winning the Calder Trophy for the Colorado Avalanche. In his third season, he had 52 points in 72 games. There was so little talk about someone offer-sheeting MacKinnon that GM Joe Sakic let him linger until July 8 before signing him to a seven-year extension. That seems absurd now for a guy who was third in voting for the Hart Trophy last season, but MacKinnon wouldn't become MacKinnon until his fifth year in the league.

When you watch Carlsson -- and not enough people on the East Coast have! -- you can see the raw materials with which he is working. Basically, he's a Swedish Evgeni Malkin, except with wheels. He's still learning how to use his size and find that next level offensively, but you can see where it's heading. Which is to say that he could be worth the money during that five-year term.

But really, does that matter? The Flyers gave him that offer sheet for two reasons.

The first is that they weren't going to find a center like Leo Carlsson with any of the four first-rounders they'd surrender for him, barring extreme draft lottery luck. Coach Rick Tocchet's team made the playoffs last season and, at worst, project to be a "mushy middle" team for the next four seasons. They have two wingers -- Porter Martone and Matvei Michkov -- who could end up as franchise players. They needed a center to tie it all together, and getting one in their age range would be spectacular.

But to get him, they had to offer an essentially absurd contract that would both entice the player to sign and give the Ducks pause about matching it. That's the offer sheet game.

The verdict: OVERREACTION. It's not just that we're high on Carlsson as a No. 1 center in this league, whether it was for the Ducks or the Flyers. It's that the cap keeps rising, and young stars keep needing contracts. What is Carlsson's deal going to look like in three years?

There are two paths: The one where the young stars reset the market like Carlsson did, or the one where they're following the model of Sidney Crosby, Connor McDavid or MacKinnon, in which they take a little less to allow the team more flexibility to build around them. But even that latter altruism is overstated: Crosby's second contract was worth 15.34% of the salary cap at the time. Carlsson's deal is worth 17.31%.

It was a good swing from the Flyers. Carlsson is one of the few players age 20 to 23 worthy of it, and maybe the only one theoretically available.

The Panthers will bludgeon their way to another Cup

When Nicolas Deslauriers signed a contract extension during the Carolina Hurricanes' Stanley Cup celebration in Raleigh, it was a nice bit of showmanship for the fans. It was also a reminder that although Deslauriers played only 3:09 during the Canes' Cup run, they'll need his particular set of skills next season. Because the Florida Panthers still exist.

The Hurricanes won the Cup without having to go through the Panthers, who had eliminated them in two of the previous three postseasons. Florida's run of back-to-back Cups ended with a nonplayoff season caused primarily by long-term injuries to Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk.

The expectation is that Florida will return to Cup contention next season, and it has apparently decided to take its frustrations out on the rest of the NHL by getting nastier and more physical in the offseason.

The headliner was trading for Ottawa Senators captain and famous sibling Brady Tkachuk, who opened the playoffs with a fight against eventual Conn Smythe winner Jordan Staal. But the Panthers also added forward Garnet Hathaway and defenseman Radko Gudas, neither of whom will ever be short-listed for the Lady Byng Trophy.

Once again, the Panthers look like the Panthers. But the secret to their success has always been that their veteran core players can be every bit as nasty and bludgeoning as their supporting cast -- something no other team in the NHL can match.

The verdict: SLIGHT OVERREACTION. There is one place where the Panthers no longer look like the Panthers, and that's in goal. Sergei Bobrovsky priced himself out of South Florida and signed a free agent deal in Toronto. GM Bill Zito turned to a former Panther to take the crease: Jacob Markstrom, coming off two disappointing seasons as the "solution" to the Devils' goaltending issues. The Panthers go into next season, and potentially next postseason, with Markstrom and Akira Schmid as their tandem.

There's something to be said for Markstrom playing behind a demonstrably better defensive team than he had in New Jersey, which could yield better results. His postseason numbers (.911 save percentage in 31 games) are promising.

But Bobrovsky was Playoff Bob for a reason. He was good when the Panthers needed him to be and never lost them a series. Having that goalie who can make that key save at a key time is the difference between playing for the Cup and failing to advance from the conference bracket. We'll see if Florida's new netminder can become Postseason Marky.

Dallas is the offseason loser

Dallas Stars GM Jim Nill won the NHL general manager of the year award three straight seasons (2022-25) before the honor went to the Minnesota Wild's Bill Guerin, whose team eliminated the Stars in the first round this year to end a run of three straight conference finals appearances for Nill's team.

It hasn't gotten much better for the Stars since then, mainly because they've been unable to navigate through the Jason Robertson issue.

The restricted free agent winger has been in a prolonged contract negotiation with Dallas, with a gap in money that appears too wide to bridge. The Stars thought they had a solution when they had a sign-and-trade deal in place to send Robertson to the Kraken for the No. 7 pick in last month's NHL draft, but Robertson wouldn't sign a long-term deal with Seattle -- despite a reported offer of $120 million over eight seasons. He hasfiled for salary arbitration, eliminating the potential for an offer sheet and potentially leading to a one-year deal that would leave him as an unrestricted free agent next year.

Players refusing to move has unfortunately been a common theme for Dallas this offseason. The Stars thought they had a trade in place for Columbus star defenseman Zach Werenski, in what sources said might have been a one-for-one trade for 24-year-old defenseman Thomas Harley. But Werenski squashed the deal with his no-movement clause. Dallas then had to smooth things over with Harley.

Meanwhile, the Stars were forced to trade 24-year-old center Mavrik Bourque to Nashville due to cap considerations.

The verdict: OVERREACTION. The Stars' roster remains loaded with talent from the teams that made those runs to the conference finals, from Mikko Rantanen to Miro Heiskanen to Jake Oettinger. The Stars finished third in the NHL last season.

The notion that it has been a disastrous offseason is misguided. Frustrating or embarrassing? Sure, but not as bad as the vibes make it seem. Nill clearly misplayed his hand with Robertson, whose name has been in the rumor mill for the past year. Obviously, trading a guy who had 96 points and 45 goals, and was so important to the Stars' success last season, was going to be difficult.

The Stars are loaded with talent but could use a Jason Robertson type on the wing, as delusional as it might sound. I thought there was a path back for both sides. Robertson clearly wants to stay. One assumes Nill is genuine in wanting to keep him. Unless there's a trade that improves the Stars, it makes more sense to find a way to keep doing business together. But even if that doesn't happen, Dallas should be OK this season.

The Capitals are major Cup contenders again

Ted Leonsis said this week that "everyone felt empty" after the Capitals missed the playoffs last season. So the organization made a commitment to "go for it" in the offseason, resulting in what Leonsis feels might be the fastest and deepest team in his 27 years as owner.

The team traded for St. Louis Blues star winger Jordan Kyrou; made a sign-and-trade with the Buffalo Sabres that landed the team winger Alex Tuch, who would have been the top forward available in unrestricted free agency; and it signed Columbus center Boone Jenner, Rangers forward Jonny Brodzinski, as well as defensemen Justin Holl (Blues) and Vincent Desharnais (Sharks).

Oh, and the Capitals found room to bring back the greatest goal scorer in NHL history: Alex Ovechkin, who turns 41 before the season.

As Capitals GM Chris Patrick noted, the primary motivation for the acquisition spree wasn't meant to entice Ovechkin, but to augment the core that'll be in place after the Great 8 hangs up his gold-laced skates. That includes veterans such asPierre-Luc Dubois, Tom Wilson and Jakob Chychrun, and younger standouts such asRyan Leonard and the Protas brothers.

The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. On paper, the Capitals have the depth of their Eastern Conference rivals but have better goaltending than either the Panthers or Hurricanes, with Logan Thompson and Charlie Lindgren. Whether they materialize as a Stanley Cup contender greatly depends on how some of their young players improve in 2026-27: Leonard, Ilya Protas, Justin Sourdif and especially rookie defenseman Cole Hutson, from whom they're expecting huge things. They have an elite coach in Spencer Carbery.

If the offseason pieces fit into place -- and the Capitals' front office has earned the benefit of the doubt -- Washington is on the short list in the East.

Dylan Larkin will start the season in Detroit

There's a difference between the "player empowerment" happening with Dylan Larkin and that of his Team USA friends. Brady Tkachuk and Ottawa parted ways, with him having two years left on his contract. Ditto Zach Werenski, seeking to finish the last two years of his contract elsewhere.

But Larkin has five more years left on his deal with the Red Wings. There's no threat of him not re-signing after an eight-year deal that started in 2024.

GM Steve Yzerman said he received the trade request and the teams to which Larkin would like to be traded, which reportedly are Florida, Minnesota and Vegas.

"My job as the manager of the Detroit Red Wings is always to do what is in the best interest of the Detroit Red Wings, and I will act accordingly to that," Yzerman said after the NHL draft. "I cannot make any guarantees, or did not make any guarantees, that that request could or would be met."

That sounds like a GM ready to play the long game with his captain, even if that game extends into the regular season.

The verdict: OVERREACTION. It has been interesting to see how the power dynamics have shifted to Larkin having a full no-movement clause. With Tkachuk, that protection led to Florida being the only destination. With Werenski, that protection meant refusing a trade to the Western Conference. With Larkin, the no-trade clause has prevented the Red Wings from trading him to a destination of their choosing, and that's the purpose of the clause. But now Yzerman is playing hardball over that trade protection.

His wager, and it's a good one: that Larkin will not want to walk into training camp as a captain abandoning his ship, nor will he want to sit out for an indefinite amount of time with no pay if he doesn't report. Hence, the hope is that he'll expand his trade horizons beyond a team that doesn't want to break up its core (Florida) and teams that might not have the pieces Yzerman is seeking (Minnesota and Vegas).

Larkin's agent Pat Brisson is a pragmatist. He has navigated choppier waters in the past. The relationship between player and GM is likely too far gone to repair. Even though Yzerman can win the waiting game, this one should be resolved before the season.

The Blackhawks blew it with Byram

There wasn't a trade more maligned in the last month than the one Chicago made with the Buffalo Sabres for 25-year-old defenseman Bowen Byram. The Blackhawks sent defenseman Louis Crevier, the fourth overall pick in the 2026 draft (which Buffalo used on defenseman Daxon Rudolph, who is headed to Denver) and the 45th overall pick (selecting defenseman Jayden Kurtz, headed to Wisconsin). Chicago also took on the full $4 million cap hit of forward Jordan Greenway.

GM Kyle Davidson then signed Byram to a six-year deal that starts in 2027-28, carrying a $12.5 million cap hit.

The cost of acquisition was criticized. The contract was criticized. Projecting Byram to be a franchise-level defenseman when he's seen as one-dimensional was criticized.

"This was just a value that we put on a really, really good young player in Bo that we felt it was advantageous to move on and acquire for our group," Davidson said. "He fits the style of play that we want to play. He fits the age range that we want to put our players into and have our players grow together within. And so it just made a lot of sense."

The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. The fourth overall pick, the 45th overall pick, the Blackhawks' leading scorer on defense and then taking on another team's problem contract on top of all of that? Thy name is overpayment. There's no debating that.

The debate is whether Byram can be what the Blackhawks want him to become. Other teams were seeking to trade for him. How many saw him as a No. 1 defenseman, as Chicago did?

But the other issue is why they made this trade. There's obvious pressure to surround Connor Bedard with as much talent as possible as quickly as possible as he enters the fourth season of an NHL career that hasn't gotten him within a mile of a playoff berth. But while teams like San Jose and Utah and Anaheim have finally emerged from their rebuilds, Chicago was 31st in the NHL last season. The Blackhawks are very much in a rebuild. Giving up the fourth overall pick for Bowen Byram makes it seem as if they're in denial about that.

Chayka/Sundin have turned the Leafs around

When John Chayka (GM) and Mats Sundin (Vibes) took over the Toronto Maple Leafs this offseason, they vowed to revitalize the team's depth and defensive corps. What we didn't realize at the time was that that meant signing half the league as free agents.

That began June 19 when Chayka acquired Darren Raddysh in a sign-and-trade with the Lightning, snagging the most coveted free agent defenseman before July 1. Then came defenseman Troy Stecher, center Jack Roslovic, goalie Sergei Bobrovsky, center Colton Sissons, center Teddy Blueger, forward Brandon Duhaime, centerZack MacEwen, center Henrik Rybinski and center Vinni Lettieri.

They acquired defenseman Emil Andrae from the Flyers in a deal for goalie Joseph Woll. They traded for forward Nick Paul from the Lightning. They rid themselves of Brandon Carlo and Nicholas Robertson for picks. Oh, and they won the draft lottery and used the first overall pick to select Penn State winger Gavin McKenna, who might finally give the Leafs their Mitch Marner replacement.

Annnnd exhale.

The verdict: SLIGHT OVERREACTION. The Leafs are obviously dealing in volume here, and some moves are better than others. Raddysh should broaden the skill set of the blueliners. Paul is a great bottom-six contributor. Heck, given Bobrovsky's numbers while playing in Toronto as an opponent, maybe this was worth a shot, too, reuniting him with former Florida backup Anthony Stolarz.

But there were also times this felt like busywork. Like a new GM was signing a bunch of familiar names who get flipped at the deadline for fourth-round picks to show that the effort was being made.

"At times, it may not have made a lot of sense in terms of individual moves. As we thought about the bigger picture and what we want to create, it all kind of fell into place for us," Chayka said.

The Leafs should be better than their .476 points percentage with this flood of new faces. The problem is that everyone in their division finished above .500. Some teams (Buffalo, Montreal) continue to improve, while teams like Florida, Tampa Bay and Boston stubbornly continue to contend. Slightly better won't cut it.

Everything's cool between Werenski and Columbus

Well, that was uncomfortable.

After Zach Werenski informed the Columbus Blue Jackets that he wasn't going to sign another extension after his current deal ends in 2028, that set the wheels in motion for a trade this offseason. GM Don Waddell found one he liked from the Stars, sending Werenski there for Thomas Harley, a great young defenseman. But Werenski didn't want to move west and used his trade protection to void the deal, bringing this very public situation to a boil.

In fact, it was too hot for Werenski to handle, leading to one of the offseason's most shocking twists. Werenski and Waddell released statements bringing the temperature down. Werenski said the situation was "blown out of proportion" and recommitted to playing for the Blue Jackets. "I want to win and I want to do that in Columbus. As I've thought about things and discussed everything with my wife and family, we want to be in Columbus," he said.

Meanwhile, Waddell said: "He has invested a great deal in this organization, and after coming close and falling short the past two seasons, his desire is to win here and get this team back into the playoffs."

Done and done. Let's drop the puck, right?

The verdict: OVERREACTION. Oh, c'mon, he's out of there. With apologies to Valeri Nichushkin, nothing has materially changed about the Blue Jackets to make them a contender in the East.

Columbus was like, "It's Dallas or nothing for now." Werenski was like, "I hate being the main character."

So they decided to press pause and start the season with the Norris Trophy winner on the Blue Jackets. But all that does is kick the can down the road a bit. Whether it's next season, next summer or in 2028, Werenski is going to be a former Blue Jacket ... unless they suddenly become a lot better in a loaded conference.

This is just how the offseason is now

The absolute chaos of the 2026 NHL offseason can best be summarized like this: The NHL announced in late June that it was considering Austin, Texas, for an expansion team. That news cycle lasted a few hours before the Sabres traded Byram to the Blackhawks. If you had to rank all the headlines in the past month in the NHL, expansion to Austin, Texas, might not break the top 20.

That's how chaotic it's been.

The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. The salary cap keeps climbing, all the way up to $113.5 million for the 2027-28 season. Teams have the space to keep their players away from free agency, turning that pool into a puddle. Thus, to get better, teams are having to be more aggressive in terms of trades and offer sheets.

That has collided with a player empowerment movement that has encouraged disgruntled stars not only to demand trades -- directly or indirectly -- but also not to shy away from maximizing their earning potential ... which, in some cases, has been the catalyst for trades. Not to mention a bold new generation of front office executives who, like Eric Tulsky of the Hurricanes, know that fortune favors the (well-informed) bold.

Welcome to the new NHL, where it's finally "on" in the offseason.

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