College Football Playoff bets to make after initial rankings release
The latest College Football Playoff rankings were released Tuesday night with with Oregon claiming the top spot and traditional powerhouses jockeying for position. The road to the expanded 12-team playoff is more intriguing than ever, and as we dive into the rankings and analyze the contenders, we'll also explore some enticing betting opportunities in the futures market.
From the high-flying Oregon Ducks to the resilient Ohio State Buckeyes, the Georgia Bulldogsand a surprising Notre Dame Fighting Irishteam, this season's playoff race promises to be one for the ages.
All odds are accurate as of timestamp. For the latest odds, go to ESPN BET.
Breaking down the contenders
No. 1 Oregon Ducks (+400)
Despite Oregon being No. 1 in the initial CFP playoff rankings, the Ducks did not become betting favorites to win the national championship at ESPN BET.
Oregon has impressed with wins over Ohio State, Michigan and Illinois, but oddsmakers are likely considering the overall strength and depth of the Ducks' remaining schedule (no ranked opponents over final four games).
Historical performance and playoff experience might also play a role in the discrepancy between odds and CFP rankings. Teams such as Ohio State and Georgia have had more recent success in these scenarios, pushing them ahead in the betting odds, while this year marks Oregon's first 9-0 start since 2012.
No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (+325)
The Buckeyes are the current betting favorite to win the national championship because of their overall performance and potential. Ohio State's only loss this season came in a narrow one-point defeat to Oregon, which they could avenge in the Big Ten championship game.
The Buckeyes face a challenge against undefeatedIndianain Week 13. If Ohio State were to lose to Indiana or even win by a narrow margin, it could affect their playoff chances, with a loss likely dropping them out of the top four in the CFP rankings.
However, Ohio State still has a good chance of making the playoff even with a loss or a close win. The Buckeyes' strong performance throughout the season, including a quality win over No. 6 Penn State, provides them with a buffer. Nonetheless, the Week 13 matchup with the Hoosiers presents a critical juncture in Ohio State's season, potentially shaping the playoff seeding and overall narrative for the team heading into the final stretch of the season.
No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs (+400)
Oddsmakers view Georgia as a top contender, second only to Ohio State. This reflects confidence in the Bulldogs' ability to finish strong, potentially win the SEC and make a deep playoff run.
However, close games against Kentucky Wildcats and Florida Gators have raised some questions. Georgia's outlook remains positive, but they'll need to show more consistency in their remaining games to secure a top playoff seed and justify their championship odds.
Georgia is currently priced at -2000 to make the College Football Playoff, and this seems steep given its upcoming schedule, implying about a 95% chance of making the playoff.
Considering the challenges ahead, including tough games against Ole Miss Rebels and Tennessee Volunteers, a more reasonable price might be in the -800 to -1000 range, reflecting the possibility of an upset.
The 12-team format provides more paths to the playoff, and as an SEC team, Georgia might get the benefit of the doubt. The Bulldogs' +900 odds to miss the playoff might underestimate the actual risk, but Georgia likely has some cushion. If the team suffers two more losses this season, that will likely knock them out of contention.
No. 5 Texas Longhorns (+500)
Texas appears to be overrated in the current College Football Playoff rankings and betting odds. The Longhorns having the fourth-shortest odds to win the national championship seems somewhat inflated given their résumé and remaining schedule. Texas' remaining strength of schedule ranks 54th according to ESPN's Football Power Index, significantly lower than other top contenders. Texas' lone loss to Georgia, while against a strong opponent, was a decisive 30-15 defeat at home. This loss, combined with a relatively weak schedule, raises questions about the team's ability to compete with the nation's elite teams.
Texas lacks standout victories against currently ranked opponents, as its wins over Michigan and Oklahoma have lost some luster with those teams falling out of the rankings. The committee seems to be relying heavily on the "eye test" rather than concrete accomplishments, especially when compared to undefeated teams such as Indiana.
The expanded playoff format provides more leeway for teams such as Texas. But even with their current résumé, the Longhorns still have a path to the playoff and could potentially improve their standing with strong performances in their remaining games. The betting odds might factor in Texas' potential rather than the team's current body of work. Nonetheless, there's a strong argument to be made that Texas doesn't deserve to be listed at +500.
Bets to consider
No. 10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+200) to miss the playoff
Notre Dame's early-season loss to Northern Illinois significantly tarnishes its résumé. While Notre Dame has notable wins over ranked teams such as No. 14 Texas A&M Aggies and No. 22 Louisville Cardinals, its overall strength of schedule (ranked 59th by ESPN) is not particularly impressive for a playoff contender.
Still ahead, the Fighting Irish face two challenging games that could significantly impact their playoff chances. The upcoming match against No. 25 Army Black Knights (Nov. 23) could be more difficult than initially anticipated. Army is currently undefeated and was the last team ranked in the initial CFP rankings, making this a potential trap game. Additionally, the Fighting Irish must beat the USC Trojans in a rivalry game on the road.
Plus, without a conference championship game, Notre Dame lacks an additional opportunity to get a statement win for the playoff committee.
Even if Notre Dame wins out, the team would likely find itself competing for an at-large playoff spot against a one-loss conference champion or other strong candidates. Given these obstacles and Notre Dame's current position, listing the team at -260 to make the playoff is cautiously optimistic.
Making a bet on the Fighting Irish to miss the playoff at +200 is a potentially valuable proposition. Notre Dame has little room for error, and even one loss over its remaining four games will likely end its playoff aspirations.
No. 9 BYU Cougars to make playoffs (+110)
BYU's initial CFP ranking appears to undervalue the team's impressive 8-0 record and quality wins over ranked opponents SMU Mustangs (No. 13) and Kansas State Wildcats (No. 19). Their undefeated status and notable victories make a compelling case for a higher ranking.
The Cougars' remaining schedule is favorable, potentially aiding their quest to maintain an unblemished record. However, the betting odds (+110 to make the playoffs, -140 to miss) indicate some skepticism among oddsmakers and bettors regarding BYU's playoff chances. This could be attributed to the strength of higher-ranked teams and the possibility of upsets in BYU's remaining games.
As the current Big 12 leader, BYU is well positioned to secure one of the automatic bids awarded to the highest-ranked conference champions. BYU might need to win the Big 12 championship to secure its playoff spot, as failing to do so would force the Cougars to compete for one of the seven at-large bids.
Alabama Crimson Tide ML -145 at LSU Tigers
LSU currently has -250 odds to miss the playoff (+190 to make). Taking Alabama on the money line against LSU as a proxy bet for the Tigers missing the playoff offers better value at -145.
While an LSU loss to Alabama would severely damage its playoff chances, it doesn't mathematically eliminate the Tigers. But a third loss on LSU's schedule would be detrimental, and significant chaos would have to occur elsewhere for the Tigers to remain in the playoff conversation. The -250 odds factor in all their remaining games, and even if LSU beats Alabama, the Tigers could still lose another game and miss out on the playoffs.
This bet is not exactly equivalent to the LSU's odds to miss the playoff but offers an option for those look for a better price on a single-game basis.
