MLB final week: Matchups to watch for the 2024 playoff push

It's not often that we get a final week of the MLB regular season with this much at stake -- and with this many of the teams in the mix playing each other. Unlike over the weekend, several of this week's head-to-head matchups feature games with teams battling for a playoff spot, fighting for playoff seeding or simply trying to stay alive.

All of which meant Tuesday night was the biggest night of the baseball season -- so far anyway. Now that we're in the final days, it creates a playoff-like, must-win intensity to these games. Some knock the expanded playoffs, and it's a reasonable argument that too many teams get in, but it gives us a fun few nights of must-watch TV.

On Tuesday, I started the evening focused on the Mets-Braves showdown in Atlanta but ended up flipping to various games. I tuned in to MLB Network's "MLB Big Inning" (which broadcasts four games simultaneously), had other games on my phone (Mariners-Astros, Angels-White Sox) then closed out the night with Padres-Dodgers at Dodger Stadium.

The best part is, we'll do it all again Wednesday. (Catch the highlights on ESPN2's "Squeeze Play" show from 7 to 10:30 p.m. ET.) Here are the best matchups ahead of us, plus what we learned from Tuesday's games.

Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros (2:10 p.m. ET)

What's at stake: The Astros clinched the American League West title with their win Tuesday, and they're locked in to host a wild-card series as the third seed. The Mariners still have a slim chance of a wild-card spot, but they need to win -- and get some help.

What happened Tuesday: The Mariners entered the day 1 games behind Detroit and Kansas City, but that was really 2 games back because they lose the tiebreaker to both teams. (As die-hard Mariners fans will remember, they don't hold the tiebreaker against Kansas City because they lost a game in June in which they led 8-0.)

They beat the Astros on Monday and led this game 3-1 with ace Logan Gilbert on the mound, but they lost it when the Astros'Jason Heyward -- recently picked up after the Dodgers let him go and only playing because Yordan Alvarez is resting a sore knee -- popped a go-ahead, two-run home run in the bottom of the fifth.

The Mariners had their chances. Second and third, one out in the sixth -- couldn't score. First and third, one out in the eighth -- couldn't score. Josh Hader came on for a four-out save and struck out three batters, including Julio Rodriguez to end it. In a season in which they weren't all that great, the Astros won their seventh division title in eight years.

I got a text from a Mariners fan friend after the loss (a long screed that I won't repeat here). Then he sent a post pointing this out: "Division titles since John Fisher -- arguably the worst current in major American professional sports -- bought the Oakland A's: Oakland 4, Seattle 0."

Baseball ain't easy, especially if you're a Mariners fan.

What to watch WednesdayA great matchup here between George Kirby and Yusei Kikuchi. Kirby is coming off back-to-back gems against Texas, but Kikuchi has been even hotter: The Astros have won all nine of his starts since picking him up from the Blue Jays at the trade deadline.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers (6:40 p.m. ET)

What's at stake: The Tigers control their own destiny as they look to make the playoffs for the first time since 2016.

What happened Tuesday: It's always fun when an out-of-nowhere team makes the playoffs. But what's amazing about the Tigers is they were out of it -- deader than Bernie -- just five weeks ago. They were 55-63 on Aug. 10, 11 games behind the Twins and 10 games behind the Royals. They're 28-11 since then, best in the majors, and have allowed just 116 runs, less than three per game.

This game was moved to the afternoon due to expected rain in Detroit, and the inevitable happened: The Tigers won, becauseTarik Skubal started. He allowed two hits in seven scoreless innings. He's 18-4 with a 2.39 ERA and he's going to win the AL Cy Young Award. (My best prediction of the season: Skubal winning the Cy Young Award.) Beau Brieske gave up a two-out home run in the ninth but pitched two innings for his first save of the season. A.J. Hinch continues to pull all the right strings with guys such as Brieske, Tyler Holton, Brant Hurter, Jason Foley, Will Vest -- an absolute no-name bullpen that has been terrific of late.

I was a bit surprised on Monday when the Tigers designated Shelby Miller for assignment and called up top prospect Jackson Jobe. It feels like bad mojo to cut a veteran reliever who had been with the team the entire season in the final days, but the good vibes are so strong right now in Detroit, I guess it doesn't matter.

What to watch Wednesday: Rookie Keider Montero starts for Detroit. He gave up four home runs in his last start against the Orioles but had back-to-back scoreless outings before that, including a complete-game shutout in which he faced the minimum 27 batters. Could we see the flame-throwing Jobe make his MLB debut in relief?

Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals (6:45 p.m. ET)

What's at stake: A week ago, the Royals looked like they could start printing playoff tickets. Now they're desperately trying to hold off the fading Twins and reach the postseason for the first time since the World Series title in 2015.

What happened Tuesday: The Royals began the day tied with Tigers for the second and third wild cards, with the Twins a game behind. K.C. had lost seven in a row, including three to the Tigers, had scored four runs in their past five games and were coming off consecutive shutout losses to the Giants. Those kinds of losing streaks, when the offense just can't do anything, are just as tough to take as those when the bullpen blows a bunch of late leads. It feels like you're never going to score again.

And again, the Royals didn't score for nine innings. Cole Ragans and the bullpen kept the Nationals off the scoreboard. That's when CJ Abrams might have saved the Royals' season (as one of my editors would put it in a text). Wait, what? Abrams wasn't even in the ballpark (long story). With a ghost runner on second, Bobby Witt Jr. hit a slower chopper to shortstop Nasim Nunez, playing for the demoted Abrams, and he double clutched on the throw and then threw it away. The run scored. The official scorer gave Witt a very generous hit and an error on the throw, so Witt added to his MLB-best average with runners in scoring position. In the bottom of the inning, Joey Gallo (yes, he's on the Nationals) just missed a walk-off home run off a Lucas Erceg hanger, the ball curling about 10 feet foul, nearly giving Royals fans a heart attack. Erceg then got the strikeout. Whew.

What to watch Wednesday: Michael Lorenzen is off the IL after a hamstring injury and making his first start for the Royals since Aug. 27. A trade deadline pickup, he was 2-0 with a 1.85 ERA in five starts with K.C. But can the Royals score a run? The offense has gone three straight games without scoring a non-ghost runner and six straight games without hitting a home run.

Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees (7:05 p.m. ET)

What's at stake: The Yankees are battling the Cleveland Guardians for the top seed in the AL -- and have a shot at the top overall seed as well. The Orioles are in but looking to lock up the fourth seed and home-field advantage for the wild-card series.

What happened Tuesday: Aaron Judge blasted his 56th home run, but the Orioles won and earned a playoff spot (officially clinching when the Twins lost). The biggest play of the game came in the bottom of the seventh, when Juan Soto singled on a line drive to score one run to make it 4-3. Gleyber Torres, on second base, held up at third, but Soto dashed for second on the throw home. Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman threw down to second, Torres took off for home and Torres was caught in a rundown -- a 9-2-6-2-5 putout. Nicely executed by the Orioles, but the Yankees have had these kinds of blunders all season, and they're the kind of mistakes that could loom large in October.

What to watch Wednesday: Zach Eflin goes for the Orioles, and he's been stellar for them: 5-2, 2.31 ERA in eight starts. He's also been very effective against Aaron Judge, who is 3-for-17 off Eflin with 10 strikeouts and one walk (all over the past two seasons).

New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves (7:20 p.m. ET)

What's at stake: The Mets are a half-game ahead of the Arizona Diamondbacks for second wild-card spot. The Braves are a half game behind the Diamondbacks for the third.

What happened Tuesday: This felt like the biggest game of the night, and a must-win type of contest for the Braves. Except that the Braves have Chris Sale scheduled to start Wednesday, Sale is going to win the National League Cy Young and the Braves have won his past eight starts, so the Mets really kind of needed to win this game as well.

The Braves scored three in the third off Luis Severino, and that would be all they needed. The rally started with an infield hit, and there were a couple of groundball singles -- just one of those rallies in baseball where you scratch across some runs simply by putting the ball in play. Marcell Ozuna later homered and, wow, where would the Braves be without him? He's hitting .310 with 39 home runs. Michael Harris II doubled and homered and has five straight multihit games. Ozzie Albies just got back, although he's only hitting right-handed (which has always been his better side anyway).

Rookie Spencer Schwellenbach was outstanding for the Braves, going seven innings. He's been one of the under-the-radar stories of the season. Primarily a shortstop at Nebraska, he also pitched in relief and the Braves drafted him in the second round in 2021 -- yet another incredible scouting find for the Braves. He missed all of 2022 with Tommy John surgery and began this season in High-A -- there was no way he was expected to be part of the Atlanta rotation. He's now 8-7 with a 3.47 ERA in 20 starts.

What to watch Wednesday:Heavy rains from potential Tropical Cyclone Nine/Hurricane Helene postponed Wednesday and Thursday's game, which likely means the Braves -- one would think -- will pitch Sale and Max Fried this weekend against the Royals. That could be a break for the Mets ... except it means a makeup doubleheader in Atlanta on Monday.What could go wrong?

Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins (7:40 p.m. ET)

What's at stake: The Twins are now two games behind the Tigers and Royals for a wild card (three teams for two spots). They've lost five of their past six games.

What happened Tuesday: The Marlins scored four runs in the second inning off Bailey Ober, three of those with two outs, to beat Minnesota. The Twins are 6-14 since Sept. 3; this was their sixth straight game without a home run. They were supposed to be better when Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis all finally got healthy at the same time this month, but instead they've gone in the tank. They're now two games back of the Tigers and Royals with five to play. They're going to need some help. And some home runs.

What to watch Wednesday: Simeon Woods Richardson gets the ball for the Twins, but he'll have a quick hook no matter what -- he's pitched fewer than five innings in each of his past five starts -- which means a Twins bullpen that has been a little shaky will have to chew up some innings. Miami starter Edward Cabrera walked five in his last start, so a patient approach is advisable.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox (7:40 p.m. ET)

What's at stake: The White Sox remain tied with the 1962 Mets for the most losses in modern baseball history at 120.

What happened Tuesday: With the White Sox poised to set the record, I turned this one on in the bottom of the eighth with the Angels up 2-0. My editor had already reported to me that the attendance included 17,606 fans and 375 dogs, which is a pretty decent crowd -- people wanted to see history (although apparently the White Sox announcers were pretty much ignoring that aspect of this game).

Well ... the fans will have to come back on Wednesday, because the White Sox improbably rallied for three runs. The tying run scored with two outs when Angels second baseman Jack Lopez, a 31-year-old career minor leaguer who had hit his first major league home run earlier in the game, dropped a routine pop fly. Lost it in the swirling winds. (Checking the box score, I see it was scored a hit. Generous.) Andrew Benintendi then drove in the go-ahead run. For one night, the baseball gods were kind to the White Sox.

What to watch Wednesday: It seems unfathomable that the White Sox could close out with six straight wins, which would actually give them a better record than the '62 Mets, because the Mets only played 160 games and finished 40-120. But don't forget that the 2003 Tigers were also chasing the Mets and won five of their final six to finish with 119 losses. You never know!

San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 p.m. ET)

What's at stake: The Diamondbacks sit in the third wild-card position, half a game behind the Mets and half a game ahead of the Braves.

What happened Tuesday:Didn't see this one as I was focused on Padres-Dodgers, but the Giants beat up on Brandon Pfaadt and the Arizona bullpen in a 11-0 rout. This leaves the Mets at 87-70, the Diamondbacks at 87-71 and the Braves at 86-71. It feels familiar to Arizona from last year, when they managed to back into the wild card with an 84-78 record despite losing their final four games. They won't be able to back in this year. They're a fun team with the best offense in the majors; I'd hate to see them miss the playoffs after such an explosive second half of mashing the baseball.

What to watch Wednesday: Zac Gallen has long been the Arizona ace and while he has two scoreless outings in September, he's allowed seven runs and four home runs over his past two and has lasted just five innings in each of his past three starts. The Arizona bullpen -- which helped blow an 8-1 lead against the Brewers on Sunday -- will be involved in this one.

San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (10:10 p.m. ET)

What's at stake: The NL West title remains up for grabs, with the Dodgers' lead down to two games. An L.A. win all but locks it up with a three-game lead with four games left, but a Padres win makes it very, very interesting.

What happened Tuesday: I mean ... this did not happen. But it did happen. The Padres led 4-1 entering the bottom of the ninth. The Dodgers get three straight hits off Robert Suarez to make it 4-2. No outs. Shohei Ohtani on deck. Miguel Rojas squares around to bunt on the first pitch. I didn't mind the strategy. Maybe the Padres walk Ohtani, but that also puts the winning run on base with Mookie Betts up. But Rojas misses the pitch. Then he swings away and rockets a grounder right to Manny Machado at third base, who turns the game-ending 5-4-3 triple play. A triple play! AMAZING.

(Believe it or not, it's the third triple play to end a game in the past 30 seasons -- although the first time in MLB history a team clinched a playoff spot with a game-ending triple play.)

What to watch Wednesday: It's Dylan Cease versus Jack Flaherty in a matchup of each team's likely Game 1 starter for the postseason. Keep in mind that the Padres have already clinched the season series over the Dodgers (they lead 8-3), so if the teams end up tied, the Padres win the division -- which they last did in 2006. I'll be watching.