Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M betting: Are Fighting Irish overlooked as underdogs?

The Saturday slate for Week 1 of the 2024 college football season comes to a close with the No. 7Notre Dame Fighting Irish and No. 20 Texas A&M Aggiesfacing off in a nonconference matchup at Kyle Field at 7 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN+.

This is the sixth meeting all time between these schools, but only the first since 2001. Coach Marcus Freeman enters his third season after having won 19 games over his first two campaigns, tied for the most of any Notre Dame coach to begin their career at the school, according to ESPN Stats & Info.

Meanwhile, the Aggies begin play in a crowded, 16-team SEC with a new coach at the helm -- former Duke coach Mike Elko. Elko is familiar with the Fighting Irish, as he spent one season as their defensive coordinator before taking the same job under Jimbo Fisher in 2018.

The lines

Spread: Texas A&M (-3)

Money line: Texas A&M(-150), Notre Dame (+130)

Over/under: 46.5

First-half spread:Notre Dame +3.5 (-170), Texas A&M -3.5 (+130)

Notre Dame total points: Over 21.5 (-105), under 21.5 (-125)

Texas A&M total points:Over 24.5 (Even), under 24.5 (-130)

Pick of the game:Notre Dame at Texas A&M, over 46.5

This game total is giving the defenses too much credit while undervaluing the potential offenses. The strength of the Aggies' defense last season was its pass rush, which ranked sixth in the country for total sacks. However, that strength might no longer be as potent after the squad lost three of its top four sack leaders, including standout linebacker Edgerrin Cooper, who led the FBS in sacks among linebackers with 10.

Duke transfer QBRiley Leonard can take advantage of A&M's depleted unit and is expected to lead Notre Dame's offense with his dual-threat capabilities. Leonard played in only seven games last season, but he was an effective runner. Despite his 6-foot-4 frame, he is surprisingly agile and fast, making sharp cuts to evade defenders and extend plays. Among quarterbacks with at least 30 run attempts, Leonard was second in yards after contact per attempt (5.55) and graded second in PFF's rushing grade, behind Heisman winnerJayden Daniels. By himself, Leonard can keep A&M's defense on its toes.

Aggies QBConner Weigman can also contribute to this game total. Weigman, a former five-star recruit, possesses high-level accuracy and touch. Despite limited playing time because of injuries, he showcased his arm talent, ranking second in deep-ball completion percentage, behind only Daniels. That arm talent can expose Notre Dame's secondary, which lost two of its top four players to the NFL.

With both teams undergoing changes on defense, there might be vulnerabilities that each offense can exploit, leading to a higher-scoring game.

Betting trends

Courtesy ESPN Stats & Info

• Texas A&M: 3-0 ATS against top-10 teams at home since 2020.
• Notre Dame: 4-2 ATS on the road against ranked opponents since 2020.

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