Why Baker Mayfield's contract means the QB market could burst

Fifty-five million dollars per year for Baker Mayfield? Seriously?!

Well, yes and no. Mayfield got his new deal from the Buccaneers on Tuesday, and it was a doozy. But it was also one of those win-win NFL contract outcomes where the player and agent get to brag about one number while the team gets to say, "Yeah, but ..."

Mayfield was already making $27 million in 2026. He now makes $37 million in 2026, $50 million in 2027, $50 million in 2028 and $55 million in 2029. That's four years and $192 million, which works out to $48 million per year over four years. But the "new money" in the deal -- money he didn't already have coming to him -- totals $165 million, and the Bucs added three years to his existing deal. Over three years, the average of $165 million is $55 million per year.

That's why both sides can claim victory and call it a win-win.

But you know who else comes out of this looking like winners? Every other quarterback who is or could be coming up for a contract extension within the next year.

Mayfield is a really good player. His career looked destined for an early end just a few years after he was the No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft, but he has found a home in Tampa, and it agrees with him. He has averaged 32 touchdown passes and 4,079 yards per season, and he won two NFC South division titles in three years with the Bucs. He has been good for them -- and they've been good for him.

But $55 million per year puts him in a tie with five other guys for third-highest average salary in the league. Dak Prescott makes $60 million per year. Patrick Mahomes' new-money average in his most recent deal was $64 million. Mahomes is the only quarterback who has even threatened -- let alone passed -- Prescott's salary in the two years since his deal was completed. Mahomes is also the only one with two MVP trophies, three Super Bowl titles and a 17-4 career playoff record. Mahomes is his own category.

The five who are tied with Mayfield at $55 million? Matthew Stafford (has won a Super Bowl and an MVP award), Joe Burrow (has been to a Super Bowl), Josh Allen (has won MVP), Jordan Love and Trevor Lawrence (uhh ... have excellent timing).

In eight NFL seasons, Mayfield has made two Pro Bowls, and his highest finish in MVP voting is 11th. His place is among the last two names in that previous paragraph, not the first three. But his presence there is what should finally make it a crossable threshold for the next group. Unlike Love and Lawrence, Mayfield wasn't benefiting from a red-hot extension market at the time he signed. This was a quiet year for top-of-the-market quarterback deals.

Mayfield had some leverage -- his contract was set to void three days after the Super Bowl and trigger an immovable $30 million dead-money cap charge for 2027 -- but the Bucs could have let him walk and trusted in their ability to find a good, affordable solution. You know, the way they did when Tom Brady retired and they signed Mayfield in the first place. The Buccaneers appear to have done this deal because Mayfield has been a really good quarterback for them, and this is what really good quarterbacks' contracts cost now.

This is fantastic news for anyone who considers himself a really good NFL quarterback and is (or will be) looking for a contract extension between now and next summer. And there are a lot of people in this category. The 2027 quarterback extension market could be the busiest we've seen in a while. And that is why 2027 should be the year when one or (likely) more quarterbacks try to join Prescott and Mahomes in the $60 million club. Many of them should, at least, get past the $55 million that we will now, for the purpose of this exercise, call the "Baker Line."

Here's a look at the quarterbacks in those conversations.

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

Jackson enters this season with two years left on his contract. He is making $52 million this year and is scheduled to make $52 million next year. The team approached him about an extension this past offseason, but nothing got done.

Jackson has tremendous leverage because his deal includes a clause that prohibits the Ravens from using the franchise or transition tags on him when he (hypothetically) becomes a free agent in 2028; it also has a no-trade clause. So, even if the Ravens couldn't get an extension done by next offseason and decided to trade Jackson rather than let him play out his contract year, he could pick his destination and veto any trade he didn't like.

Is he over the Baker Line? He is, by two MVP awards if nothing else. Jackson is the one guy in this group who already has a strong case to surpass Prescott's average annual salary of $60 million. It would be shocking and foolish at this point for him to agree to anything less. Imagine if Jackson were to stay healthy for two more years, play lights-out in both of them and become an unrestricted free agent in spring 2028 with no franchise tag to limit his earnings potential? What would he get ... $70 million per year? $80 million?

Drake Maye, New England Patriots

Entering his third year in the NFL, Maye will be eligible for a contract extension whenever the Patriots' season ends. Having finished second in MVP voting and led the team to the Super Bowl in his second season, Maye would have had a case to be over the Baker Line if he had been allowed to negotiate an extension this offseason. (CBA rules say you have to wait until after the player's third year.) The Patriots have a fifth-year option for 2028, which would buy them time next spring to work on this.

Is he over the Baker Line? Right now, probably. Mayfield has never been to the Super Bowl or placed second in MVP voting. If Maye were to suffer a significant injury or experience dramatic regression from his 2025 performance, he might be in a situation similar to the one C.J. Stroud is in right now, with the team picking up the option and waiting to see more before committing. But (Wednesday night's fourth-quarter meltdown aside) that feels unlikely.

Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears

Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders

Bo Nix, Denver Broncos

I'm grouping these three together because they're in very similar situations. Maye's 2024 first-round classmates have yet to reach the Super Bowl (which is why he got his own entry here), but each has shown plenty of the promise that led their teams to draft them where they did.

Daniels won Offensive Rookie of the Year and took the Commanders to the NFC Championship Game in his rookie season, then injuries derailed his second year. Nix helped the Broncos reach the AFC Championship Game last season, though he couldn't play in it because he broke his ankle during one of the final plays of Denver's overtime playoff victory over the Bills the week before. Williams struggled in his first year but really took off last season once the Bears hired Ben Johnson as their head coach. Williams didn't get to the NFC Championship Game, but the Bears took the Rams to overtime the week before in the divisional round.

All three of these guys can likely count on their teams picking up their fifth-year options next spring for 2028 if they can't get deals done before then. The other 2024 first-rounders were Atlanta's Michael Penix Jr. and Minnesota'sJ.J. McCarthy, who don't yet merit much mention in a conversation like this.

Are they over the Baker Line? It depends. But given their credentials and accomplishments so far, each should get there as long as they show improvement rather than regression in Year 3.

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans

The second pick in the 2023 draft had his fifth-year option for 2027 picked up in May, but he still hasn't secured an extension from the Texans, a team that is as proactive and generous as any in the league when it comes to veteran contract extensions. He was Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2023 and has reached the second round of the playoffs every season he has been in the league. But his performance in last season's playoffs cost Houston a chance at the Super Bowl, and Stroud wisely appears to have decided he'd be better off negotiating next spring after a strong 2026 than doing it now.

Is he over the Baker Line? No, but he's betting on his own ability to get there. The Texans have Super Bowl hopes, with a championship-caliber defense that needs Stroud to play the way he did as a rookie. If he does -- and especially if they make a deep playoff run -- he'll be able to top not only Mayfield but also Prescott.

Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers

Young was picked one spot ahead of Stroud at the top of the 2024 draft, but he has not enjoyed the same level of success. He had a rough rookie season, then got benched for Andy Dalton early in his second season. Young recovered from that benching to finish 2024 strong, and he showed continued development in 2025, leading the Panthers to an NFC South title (albeit with an 8-9 record) and a playoff appearance in which Carolina gave the favored Rams a tough time before bowing out.

Similar to Stroud, Young was eligible for an extension this offseason but didn't get one. The Panthers clearly want to see more before committing long term.

Is he over the Baker Line? No, and this season would have to go incredibly well for both Young and the Panthers to get him there. Carolina picked up his fifth-year option for 2027, so there's no rush on this situation, which feels as though it could still go several ways.

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

Hurts signed his extension the same year Jackson signed his (2023). Hurts had just been to the Super Bowl and lost to the Chiefs. Two years later, he became a Super Bowl MVP and champion. Hurts has three years left on his contract, including 2026, at $51.5 million per year. This year's money is all guaranteed, as is $22 million of next year's salary.

The Eagles are coming off a disappointing season, especially offensively, and an offseason that saw them totally revamp their offense and trade away top wide receiver A.J. Brown. All eyes in Philadelphia are on whether Hurts can master new coordinator Sean Mannion's system and thrive in it.

Is he over the Baker Line? For sure. Hurts has been to two Super Bowls and won one. He has a 3.67 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his 10 career playoff games, of which he has won six. You can point out all of the flaws you want, but there's just no way an organization has the level of success the Eagles have had the past five years if the quarterback isn't good.

If Hurts were in a renegotiation now and demanded to make more than Mayfield, it would be hard to tell him he's wrong. But this exercise assumes he'll be in a renegotiation next spring, and there's no way to know how that will go until we know how this season goes. If Hurts flourishes in the new offense and the Eagles win a ton of games, he's likely to be in line for something in the $60-plus million range. If he flops and they miss the playoffs, it's not out of the question to think the Eagles would look to make a change. (Remember how Hurts got the job in the first place, so soon after they had extended Carson Wentz.)

If it's something in the middle -- offense starts slow, picks it up late and shows promise, etc. -- then Hurts and the Eagles probably figure out some kind of Band-Aid solution that puts off the big decision until after 2027. Fair or not, it feels as if there's a lot of pressure on Hurts this season to show once again that he belongs at the top of this market.

Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks

Darnold signed a three-year, $100.5 million contract with the Seahawks as a free agent in spring 2025. He had just helped lead the Vikings to a 14-3 record and a playoff appearance in 2024. And in his first year in Seattle, the Seahawks went 14-3 and won the Super Bowl.

No extension was offered to Darnold, who had already earned another $4 million in incentives last season based on performance and team success. He has $27.5 million in guaranteed money this year, and he's scheduled to earn another $35.5 million in 2027. The 2027 money is not guaranteed, though $10 million of it will become guaranteed if he's still on the Seahawks' roster March 15.

Is he over the Baker Line? Yeah, at this point, if you were his agent, you'd have to say he is, right? He has a 3-1 playoff record and a Super Bowl title. Mayfield is 2-3 in playoff games and has never advanced past the second round. You might think Mayfield is better, but these guys tend to get paid on what they've accomplished. And Darnold can make the case that he has accomplished more than Mayfield.

If the Seahawks have another good season, Darnold -- who left the season opener because of a hip injury, though it doesn't sound as though he'll miss too much time -- would be in line for an extension. He'd be quite the test case. The Seahawks have been pretty adamant about not overpaying quarterbacks, and their lack of action on a potential Darnold extension this offseason tells us they believe he's appropriately compensated.

But Darnold's deal with Seattle came one year after Mayfield's first extension with the Bucs, and the deals were almost identical. This time, Darnold and his agent should be able to point to Mayfield's contract again and say Darnold deserves at least as much. If that's the case, would the Seahawks do it? Or would they do what they did with Russell Wilson and Geno Smith when those guys asked for more than the team thought they were worth -- trade him?

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

Goff got his extension in the offseason of 2024, when quarterbacks such as Lawrence and Tua Tagovailoa were getting contracts. Goff's came in at $53 million per year in new money -- just under what is now the Baker line. Goff has been to the Super Bowl with the Rams and got close with the Lions, who have a record of 50-35-1 in games he has started for them. Signed through 2028, he's set to earn $55 million this year, $40 million next year and $47 million in 2028. At this time, $18 million of his 2027 compensation is guaranteed.

Is he over the Baker line? Probably right on it, if not a little bit over. But this is another situation that likely depends on what happens this season. How the Lions feel about Goff and the state of their championship window in general next February will go a long way in determining how motivated they are to extend his contract, which has two years left, no matter how he plays at age 32.

Kyler Murray, Minnesota Vikings

Talk about a make-or-break year. Murray was owed about $37 million guaranteed from the Cardinals for this season. They released him, and that allowed the Vikings to sign him for a veteran-minimum $1.3 million and leave the Cardinals to pay the remaining $35.7 million. The Vikings have named Murray their starter ahead of 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy. Murray's contract includes a clause that prohibits them from using the franchise or transition tags on him next spring. So, if he has a huge year, they have no way of keeping him off the unfettered free agent market.

Is he over the Baker Line? No way, but that no-franchise clause is a whopper in terms of leverage. If Murray plays great and hits free agency next year at 29 years old, he'll sail past Mayfield -- and Prescott.

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