Cubs' stretch conundrum: Sorting out bullpen's pecking order

CHICAGO -- Can a team win a World Series with a bullpen by committee? The Cubs might put that notion to a test, as they did in their dramatic, 7-4 win over the New York Mets on Monday.

After fill-in closer Pedro Strop allowed the first two men to reach in the ninth inning, Chicago manager Joe Maddon had seen enough. Strop handed the ball to Justin Wilson, who handed the ball to veteran Jesse Chavez after giving up a single. All Chavez did was strike out the final two batters with the bases loaded to preserve the victory, the Cubs' sixth win in a row.

"Just breathe," Chavez said after the game. "That's the biggest thing. Try not to let the situation get to you. For me, having broken ribs before, twice, you kind of work on breathing programs. That helps out there. In all honesty, that has helped me a ton since that happened."

Chavez struck out Amed Rosario and Austin Jackson, allowing a sold-out Wrigley Field crowd to breathe again themselves. The righty finishing the job isn't all that surprising; he has been great since being acquired from theTexas Rangerslast month. The fact that he struck them both out, with a howling wind blowing toward the bleachers in center field, was very surprising.

"Our bullpen is a contact bullpen," Maddon said. "We don't blow people away -- although we're one of the best bullpens in baseball."

In fact, the Cubs have made a concerted effort to bring some swing-and-miss stuff to the back end of the bullpen in recent times. Injured closer Brandon Morrow is the best example, as he had a 25.4 whiff percentage before going down with a biceps injury.

But therein lies the Cubs' problems. Morrow still isn't sure when he'll be back, and he is likely to pitch through discomfort when he does return. The idea of pitching in all seven game of a playoff series -- as he did last season in the World Series with theLos Angeles Dodgers-- seems impossible this time around. That's if he even returns to any sort of reliable form.

Then there's Wilson, who does have swing-and-miss stuff, but only sometimes. When he loses his command, he can lose it in a bad way.

But besides Morrow's injury, the thing that has baffled observers the most is righty Carl Edwards Jr.

"Carl is the guy," Maddon said. "Carl is the guy that can miss bats. He hasn't been doing that with any regularity."

Edwards pitched a perfect 1-2-3 eighth inning on Monday, but can the Cubs lean on him in October the same way top arms have been used at that time of year? He extended his streak of appearances without a strikeout to six on Monday. According to ESPN Stats and Information data, the previous longest streak of his career was two games. Over the stretch of six games, he has induced a swing-and-miss on just 12 of 94 pitches. Remember, we're not just judging success or failure -- there's nothing wrong with a 1-2-3 inning -- we're trying to project what a Cubs bullpen might look like in crunch time.

Then there's Strop, who has been a warrior for the Cubs. Since Morrow last pitched in a game, Strop has a 2.70 ERA with a .149 batting average against, but he has hit four batters and walked six in 13 innings. And he has been trending the wrong way. Since Aug. 19, Strop's opponents have made contact on 74 percent of their swings -- versus 65 percent entering that date -- and they are chasing on just 23 percent of pitches outside of the zone, as compared to 37 percent going into the 19th. Any scout in the league will tell you he's probably not the man for the ninth inning in a playoff series. In fact, Maddon downplayed Strop as the current closer for the final inning of a tight game.

"He's not an ordained closer," the manager stated. "He has not been to the Vatican, and he has not received the holy oils. He's part of the bullpen. We have different guys."

"Different guys" is another way of saying you don't have a closer. That's perfectly fine, if it can work in October. The trend has been relying heavily on one or two arms; see former Cub Aroldis Chapman circa 2016 for evidence. There are plenty of other examples, as well, over the past several years.

"Everybody down there, with the stuff they have, is good enough to close at any given moment," Chavez said. "You just try to pick up your guys that day."

Let's not forget, the Cubs won Monday's game. They have a solid hold on their division, as well as the best record in the National League. Anthony Rizzo is on fire, and so are recent additions Daniel Murphy and Cole Hamels. Speaking of those names, with just days left before the Aug. 31 waiver trade deadline for players to be eligible for the postseason, it is doubtful the Cubs can pull another rabbit out of their hat for the ninth inning.

The good news is that the Cubs -- or at least their fans -- can start to think about a fourth straight trip to the postseason. But nothing can derail a run in October like a thin pen, especially the back end. With analytics running the game, starters might get two times through the order and that's it. It means reliable arms have to take over.

"Our bullpen is not the kind that's going to miss bats with any regularity, so that's where the matchup component is really important," Maddon said.

Just think of an October night when Maddon has to use three pitchers in the ninth inning to secure a win. Fans will need Chavez's breathing techniques just to survive. Perhaps the understated journeyman is the Cubs' best option in bigger moments right now.

"Try to keep the ball down," Chavez said. "Play the park, play the elements. Golfers do it all the time.

"You just try and run with it."