Will Door County, Wisconsin predict the outcome of the 2024 election? It has a history of doing so

CHICAGO (WLS) -- It has just 10 highly coveted electoral votes and, with them, Wisconsin has played an outsized role in at least the last two presidential elections.

But no county in the country may have more accurately picked more presidents, no matter the party, in recent memory than Door County.

Instead of focusing on candidates per se, a weekly "Loud and Proud" roadside approach by local Democrats has been meant to rile up enthusiasm around the issues.

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"it's trying to show voters that we're all concerned about the same things. Maybe we need to be talking about how to do that in a realistic way," said John and Arnette Vincent, Door County Democrats.

The intensity of a razor-thin election is compounded in the otherwise laid back stretch of coastline and farmland. The margin here, reflected in neighbors' front yards, keeps getting slimmer.

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Donald Trump won Wisconsin in part by 558 Door County votes in 2016. President Joe Biden won the county back by just 292 votes in 2020.

For a place as narrowly divided, and politically engaged, as Door County, particularly the Sturgeon Bay area, one thing that's notably missing, or at least rare, is signs of political turf-marking on downtown storefronts.

"People want to get along with their neighbors, so they're not necessarily trying to create a dust up," said business owner Mario Macheli.

Voters here can change with the (election) season.

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"I feel like we're living in different worlds sometimes. I'm concerned about the economy, but even just things like a government has grown so big in D.C., it just feels like it's hard to hold anybody or anything accountable," said Stephanie Soucek, chair of the Door County Republicans.

Republicans say that message resonates across the country's rural swath, where perhaps any single undecided vote could change the course of history.

"If I were to vote for one of the major parties it would be Donald Trump," said undecided voter and farmer Jacob VandenPlas. "I can't say for sure."

When Wisconsin had its presidential primary on April2, Biden was still on the Democratic ticket and so were numerous Republican challengers.

In that primary, more Democrats in Door County voted for someone other than Biden, and more Republicans voted for candidates other than Trump compared to the margin that either won there in the past two elections.

So voters there from both parties say they're confident Door County will continue its predictive streak.