Betting buzz: From 5,000-1 to 500-1, Army faces Notre Dame

Everything that happens in sports has some additional context when viewed from a sports betting perspective.From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the sports news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.

Our betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, aims to provide fans a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation.

From 5,000-1 to 500-1, Army faces Notre Dame

David Purdum and Doug Greenberg: On July 24, a bettor with Caesars Sportsbook in North Carolina placed a $200 futures bet on Army to win the national championship at 5000-1 odds for a chance at a $1 million payday. Four months later, the undefeated Black Knights remain massive long shots, 500-1 to win it all, but they're just 10-1 to get into the College Football Playoff, a chip-and-a-chair scenario that would increase hedging opportunities for the intriguing bet.

What a story it would be, one that would intensify if Army were to spring an upset Saturday against No. 6 Notre Dame. Seven ranked teams have been two-touchdown underdogs in games this season. All seven have lost straight-up. No. 19 Army will try to buck that trend Saturday night at Yankee Stadium.

The undefeated Black Knights are getting 14 points and are around +450 underdogs to pull the outright upset. The point spread on the game opened at Notre Dame -17. The line fluctuated both ways during the week, eventually settling with the Fighting Irish as 14-point favorites entering Saturday. Sportsbooks were reporting balanced action on the spread heading into the weekend. T

he betting on the money-line was a different story. At BetMGM, 81% of the money-line bets on the game were on Army, but 86% of the money that had been wagered was on the favored Fighting Irish, laying -750 odds.

Indiana-Ohio State a big decision for sportsbooks, bettors

Before the season, it's unlikely that many people would have circled No. 5 Indiana at No. 2 Ohio State as one of the most critical games of the year, but headed into Week 13, that's exactly what it is and the betting frenzy is backing that notion up.

Earlier in the week, this column highlighted the Buckeyes' spread moving down from -13.5 to -10, but some later sharp action has pushed that back up to -10.5, per ESPN BET odds. The public will firmly be rooting the Hoosiers to win outright, as several sportsbooks report an overwhelming number of tickets on the Indiana moneyline.

"Ohio State-Indiana is by far the most-bet game on Saturday," BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee said via email, adding that there are 2.5-times more bets on Indiana-Ohio State than any other game. "There are 4X the number of bets on Indiana (+325) to win than any other team. Ohio State winning but Indiana covering is the best outcome for the sportsbook."

Odds & Ends

• After opening around -9.5,No. 9Ole Miss has seen a surge of late steam ahead of its road matchup with Florida, now showing -13 at ESPN BET. BetMGM and DraftKings both report positive money splits supporting the Rebels' spread.
• No. 16 Colorado continues to be a popular play with bettors, as BetMGM reports their road showdown with Kansas as the second-most-bet game of the day. The Buffaloes have received decent support on tickets and handle for the spread, but can't get to the key number, hovering at -2.5.
• The matchup between North Carolina and Boston College has seen its total drop from 54.5 at open to 50.5 ahead of kickoff amid reports of inclement weather in Chestnut Hill. The forecast is calling for temperatures in the mid-40s, rain and sustained 15-20 mph winds, as well as gusts up to 35 mph.

The College Football Playoff race is beginning to crystallize and following Week 12, several teams made moves in the "To Make the Playoff" future market. Here are the most notable changes headed into Week 13:

Odds by ESPN BET

• Army: was +800, now +750
• BYU: was +100, now +300
• Clemson: was +300, now +250
• Colorado: was +140, now -110
• Georgia: was -450, now -3000
• SMU: was +135, now +115
• Tennessee: was -310, now -135

Nov. 22: Big line movement on Indiana-Ohio State

David Purdum: The point spread on the Indiana Hoosiers-Ohio State Buckeyes game moved three points Thursday, dropping from Buckeyes -13 to -10, with sportsbooks reporting a surge of bets on the underdog Hoosiers.

The line on the critical Big Ten clash had grown to as high as Ohio State -13.5 early in the week but began moving toward the underdog Hoosiers on Thursday, eventually settling at a consensus -10.

ESPN BET took more money on the Buckeyes from Thursday to Friday, but moved its point spread in line with the overall market. Other sportsbooks reported taking action on the Hoosiers from sharp customers on Thursday, causing the line to move.

DraftKings reported on Friday that Indiana plus the points was the most popular college football bet on the board by both number of bets and amount of money wagered. The Indiana-Ohio State game had also attracted more bets than any other game at BetMGM sportsbooks.

Joe Brennan, chief of Prime Sports, said his online sportsbook saw sharp bets come in Thursday on Indiana, but he wasn't convinced the line was done moving. "We think this line goes back up before post," Brennan told ESPN in a text message.

In fact, the line had ticked back up to Ohio State -10.5 at some sportsbooks on Friday.

Ohio State announced on Wednesday that starting center Seth McLaughlin would miss the game after suffering an Achilles tendon injury in practice. McLaughlin is the third Buckeyes offensive lineman to be lost to injury since October. Blustery weather also could play a factor in Saturday's game in Columbus, Ohio, where forecasts are calling for temperatures in the 40s with possible higher wind gusts.

Nov. 18: Allen passes Jackson as MVP fave after game-winning run

Greenberg: On fourth-and-2 just before the two-minute warning on Sunday night, quarterbackJosh Allen dropped back and unleashed a highlight-reel 26-yard touchdown run to seal a 30-21 victory for the Buffalo Bills and hand the Kansas City Chiefs their first loss of the season. That single play probably tipped the scales in the NFL MVP race.

Before that play, Allen trailed Baltimore RavensQB Lamar Jackson on the NFL MVP odds board +225 to +150; immediately following the fateful score, ESPN BET moved the odds to Allen +160 and Jackson +185. As of early Monday afternoon, Allen is +150 and Jackson remains at +185.

In the last week, Allen attracted a leading 40.5% of handle to win the award, with 63.8% in the time frame since Sunday morning, per ESPN BET. Jackson is still the overall handle leader since the market opened, taking 14.4% of the money.

The quarterback facing Allen on Sunday, Patrick Mahomes, saw the precipitous drop in his odds continue after another relatively disappointing showing. The two-time MVP began the season as the +500 favorite, fell to +600 before Week 11, and now finds himself at +1200, fourth on the odds board.

The third spot on the board belongs to Jared Goff, whose odds graph resembles a roller coaster. Early in the season, the Detroit Lions signal-caller was as long as +6000, shortened to +600 by mid-October, but then rose to +4000 after he threw five interceptions in Week 10. After a demolition of the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday that made the Lions Super Bowl favorites, Goff now sits at +650 and has taken more bets in the month of November than any other contender (21.1%).

Another big mover is Justin Herbert, who led the Los Angeles Chargers to a high-profile win over the Cincinnati Bengals on "Sunday Night Football". Herbert was 100-1 throughout October, came down +4000 before the weekend and now shows +2500 after his big night, tied for sixth in the odds.