18 primaries to watch in Missouri, Michigan, Washington and Kansas
We're getting oh so close to knowing who all the candidates on the November ballot will be, but even as the calendar has turned to August, about a third of all states still have yet to hold their primaries for non-presidential office. On Tuesday, four states - Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington - will head to the polls (or mail in their ballots), and we're tracking over a dozen races between them.
With luck, by Wednesday, we'll know whether the progressive "Squad" has lost another member; whether one of the two remaining Republican representatives who voted to impeach former President Donald Trump has gone down to defeat; and the names of the Democratic and Republican candidates for one of the fall's top Senate races. Here's a full rundown:
Missouri
Races to watch: 1st and 3rd congressional districts; governor, attorney general
Polls close: 8 p.m. Eastern
Perhaps no district in the country has seen more political activism in the past decade than Missouri's 1st District. In 2020, on her second try, now-Rep. Cori Bush - a progressive activist who first rose to prominence in the 2014 Ferguson protests in this district - defeated an entrenched incumbent representative in the Democratic primary in this safely blue seat, and she instantly made a name for herself as an activist legislator in Congress.
But her contrarianism - for example, she was one of just six Democrats to vote against President Joe Biden's infrastructure bill - has rubbed many the wrong way. It doesn't help, too, that the Department of Justice is investigating her for paying her husband for personal security services out of her campaign's bank account. As a result, Bush is now facing a serious primary challenge of her own from St. Louis County Prosecutor Wesley Bell.
Like Bush, Bell was first elected as a progressive in the wake of the Ferguson protests, but in this race he has inevitably become associated with the centrist and conservative donors and groups backing his campaign - most notably the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. AIPAC's super PAC has spent a whopping $8.4 million either supporting Bell or opposing Bush, who has been one of Israel's loudest critics in Congress over its conduct in the war against Hamas.
All told, pro-Bell groups have outspent pro-Bush groups $12.1 million to $2.9 million, according to OpenSecrets, and Bell's actual campaign has outraised Bush's $4.8 million to $2.9 million as well. But with all the advantages of incumbency as well as plenty of local endorsements, Bush will not be easy to defeat. A July 21-24 poll conducted by the Mellman Group/Democratic Majority for Israel gave Bell 48 percent support and Bush 42 percent, but since DMFI supports Bell and internal polls usually overestimate their preferred candidate's support, that implies the two candidates are neck-and-neck.
The Republican primary in the dark-red 3rd District, by contrast, has gotten a fraction of the attention but has similarly high ideological stakes. Old-guard Republican Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer is retiring, and it seems likely he will be replaced by a more hardline conservative, former state Sen. Bob Onder (whom Luetkemeyer also defeated in the 2008 primary en route to winning this seat in the first place). A bunch of GOP heavy hitters (Trump, the House Freedom Fund, the Club for Growth) have lined up behind Onder, who was known for his obstructionist ways in the state legislature.
Not everyone is thrilled about the prospect of Onder heading to Congress, however. Establishment-aligned super PACs have spent $4.9 million opposing Onder or supporting his main opponent, former state Sen. Kurt Schaefer, outdistancing the $3.0 million groups have spent to boost Onder or attack Schaefer. Luetkemeyer is supporting Schaefer as well, but it doesn't seem like he's catching on. Onder's campaign recently released a poll from Remington Research Group showing him leading Schaefer 34 percent to 14 percent, with five minor candidates combining for 16 percent, and 35 percent undecided.
Missouri will also elect a new governor in 2024, with the Republican primary likely to be decisive in this solidly red state. Thanks to strong name recognition (his father, former U.S. Attorney General John Ashcroft, is a former Missouri governor and senator), Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft started off the year with a healthy lead in the polls. However, Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe outraised Ashcroft $4.2 million to $1.4 million, and Kehoe and his allies have outpaced Ashcroft and friends $11.2 million to $6.5 million in total ad spending, per AdImpact. Tellingly, once Kehoe's side started deploying that cash, Ashcroft's lead evaporated: According to 538's polling average of the race, Ashcroft and Kehoe go into the primary running almost even at around 25 percent apiece.
A third candidate, state Sen. Bill Eigel, sits at 16 percent and can't be counted out either. He also raised more than Ashcroft at $1.7 million - with $4.4 million in total ad support - and he's the farthest right of the trio, with a reputation for holding legislation hostage until he gets what he wants. For his part, Ashcroft has campaigned as a staunch conservative as well, while Kehoe is seen as the most mild-mannered candidate in the race. However, perhaps the best chance to halt Kehoe's momentum evaporated last week when Trump endorsed Kehoe ... and Ashcroft ... and Eigel. It was Trump's first-ever three-way endorsement and ensured this primary will go into election day with no clear favorite.
Finally, the Republican primary for Missouri attorney general is a battle between two culture warriors. After former Attorney General Eric Schmitt was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2022, Gov. Mike Parson appointed his general counsel, Andrew Bailey, to the post. Bailey is now seeking his first full term in office, but first he'll have to get through Will Scharf, who is one of Trump's personal attorneys.
As attorney general, Bailey has thrown his office's weight behind many a conservative cause célèbre; last year, he issued (but eventually rescinded) emergency rules that limited access to gender-affirming care for both children and adults, and in July he sued New York over Trump's criminal conviction there. But Scharf actually argues that Bailey hasn't been enough of an activist AG, and he's tried to frame himself as a "conservative outsider" facing off against "the Jefferson City establishment."
Indeed, virtually every major Republican in state politics, including Parson, Schmitt and Sen. Josh Hawley, has endorsed Bailey. And if Scharf thought his old boss would come through for him, he was sadly disappointed: Trump issued yet another wishy-washy endorsement in this race, giving both candidates his seal of approval. And although, thanks to profligate spending from the Club for Growth, Scharf has more money behind him than Bailey does, it looks like incumbency will carry the day here: A July 10-11 poll from co/efficient sponsored by Bailey's campaign gave Bailey a 21-point lead.
Michigan
Races to watch: U.S. Senate; 3rd, 8th, 10th and 13th congressional districts
Polls close: 8 p.m. Eastern in most of the state, 9 p.m. Eastern in four counties in the Upper Peninsula
Michigan is the only out-and-out battleground state voting on Tuesday, and its headline race is an open U.S. Senate seat that Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow's retirement has left up for grabs. On the Democratic side, Rep. Elissa Slotkin looks well-positioned to defeat actor Hill Harper: She's regularly polled above 50 percent in the primary contest while outraising Harper $24.1 million to $2.8 million. In fact, Slotkin is already looking ahead to the general election, as demonstrated by her sizable ad buy for October and November.
Until a couple of weeks ago, the Republican primary contest looked at least somewhat more competitive. Former Rep. Mike Rogers, who retired from Congress in the 2014 cycle and had previously been critical of Trump, shifted his rhetoric and garnered the former president's endorsement in March, which along with his fundraising haul of $5.4 million has made him the favorite. Businessman Sandy Pensler, who'd self-funded almost all of his campaign's $5.0 million war chest, did seem to have the wherewithal to challenge Rogers. But on July 20, Pensler dropped out and endorsed Rogers, making the former congressman an even clearer favorite.
Now Rogers only has to contend with two other candidates, both of whom have criticized Rogers's conservative bona fides. The more notable name is former Rep. Justin Amash, who famously left the GOP to become an independent and voted to impeach Trump in 2019. In his campaign, Amash has run as a small-government critic of Rogers, whom Amash has accused of being an "establishment stooge" and part of the "deep state." Still, Amash has only raised $703,000, and while pro-Amash groups have forked out $1.7 million to boost him or attack Rogers, that's a far cry from the $5.0 million that outside groups have spent to help Rogers. Additionally, physician and pastor Sherry O'Donnell is running as an ardently pro-Trump candidate with endorsements from a number of far-right figures. But she's only brought in $434,000 and has received no outside assistance.
Turning to the House, both parties have contested primaries in Michigan's 8th District, a toss-up seat located around Flint that is open following the retirement of Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee. In the GOP race, former Trump administration official Paul Junge is running again after losing to Kildee in 2022 and to Slotkin in 2020, while retired Dow Chemical Company executive Mary Draves has pointed to those defeats as evidence that Junge would be a weaker general election choice. However, Draves appears to have her work cut out for her in the primary: Junge has outraised her $2.1 million to $546,000 (Junge has self-funded $2 million to Draves's $259,000), money he's used to attack Draves as "woke." Although the GOP-aligned Winning for Women Action Fund has spent $385,000 to aid Draves, it may not be enough. Polls conducted on behalf of Junge's campaign previously found him surpassing 50 percent support - and that was before Trump endorsed Junge on July 26.
Meanwhile, Democrats have a three-way primary for this seat. The favorite is state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet, who has raised $1.7 million and has endorsements from Emily's List and the United Auto Workers labor union, as well as from Kildee and other Democratic officeholders. She's also the preferred choice of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. McDonald Rivet's main opponent is former Army Ranger Matt Collier, who served as Flint's mayor back in the early 1990s. Collier has brought in $906,000 (almost half self-funded) and has backing from veterans groups.
Two June surveys by Public Policy Polling on behalf of Collier's allies found him within striking distance of McDonald Rivet. But Kildee publicly expressed irritation with Collier over a campaign ad that used an image of Kildee's uncle, the late Democratic Rep. Dale Kildee, because while Collier once worked for the elder Kildee in the 1980s, he later considered challenging him in the 1990s as a Republican. Also running is State Board of Education President Pamela Pugh, who switched over from the Senate race and has raised $552,000 for her bid.
In the competitive but blue-leaning 3rd District centered on Grand Rapids, two Republicans are battling to face Democratic Rep. Hillary Scholten. The money race has been close, as businessman Michael Markey has raised $793,000 to attorney Paul Hudson's $630,000 (both have self-funded to a sizable extent). But Hudson may have the upper hand thanks to West Michigan for Change, an outside group funded by his brother that has spent $698,000 supporting Hudson or attacking Markey. The race has become fairly ugly, as WMFC has argued that Markey supported the Green New Deal, a position associated with progressives, while Markey has sought to link Hudson to the Chinese Communist Party because Hudson once represented a Chinese auto parts supplier. We've seen no polls of this race, so it's hard to know who will advance to go up against Scholten, who looks likely to win renomination in her own primary.
Democrats have a contested primary in the 10th District, a swingy seat held by Republican Rep. John James that covers much of Macomb County. In 2022, James defeated former Macomb County judge Carl Marlinga by only 0.5 points, and Marlinga is back for another go. Considering Marlinga has been around Macomb County politics and law for decades, the 77-year old may be favored in the Democratic primary. However, he's only raised $627,000, putting him just ahead of financial adviser Diane Young ($526,000) and gun safety activist Emily Busch ($481,000).
Most strikingly, Busch has run an ad in which she disclosed having had an abortion and claimed that Marlinga once tried to prevent a 12-year-old rape victim from receiving one. Marlinga has defended his record on abortion, saying that he only delayed action in that court case so the victim could first receive a psychological evaluation. Notably, attempts to portray Marlinga as insufficiently favorable toward abortion rights didn't work in the 2022 Democratic primary, which he won comfortably. State Board of Education Co-Vice President Tiffany Tilley is also in the race, although she's only raised $63,000.
Lastly, Democratic Rep. Shri Thanedar faces a primary challenge in the Detroit-based 13th District - although not the one many expected. Thanedar, who is Indian American, won an open-seat race in this plurality-Black and solidly blue district in 2022, edging out then-state Sen. Adam Hollier thanks in part to a crowded primary field. As a result, Michigan has no Black member of Congress for the first time since the early 1950s, which - along with criticisms about his professionalism in office - has helped prompt opposition to Thanedar among some in Detroit's Black community and the Congressional Black Caucus. However, while Hollier was set to challenge Thanedar in 2024, he failed to make the primary ballot due to invalid signatures, leaving Detroit City Council member Mary Waters as Thanedar's main opponent.
Hollier's absence has put Thanedar in the driver's seat for renomination. Personally wealthy, the incumbent has self-funded much of the $7.1 million that he's raised, putting him light years ahead of Waters's $153,000. On top of this, outside groups have come in big for Thanedar, whether directly or indirectly. Pro-cryptocurrency group Protect Progress has spent $1.0 million to back him while Blue Wave Action, which has unclear ties, has spent $2.3 million to, er, muddy the waters. BWA has attacked Waters as corrupt, pointing to an influence-peddling scheme that resulted in a one-year probation for her. But BWA has also promoted the third (and minor) candidate in the race, which could potentially help split the anti-Thanedar vote. Waters's campaign has accused BWA of being in cahoots with Thanedar, although there's no evidence - and the group won't have to file information about its donors until after the primary.
Kansas
Races to watch: 2nd and 3rd congressional districts
Polls close: 8 p.m. Eastern in most of the state, 9 p.m. Eastern in four western counties
In Kansas's 2nd District, which covers much of the eastern part of the state, GOP Rep. Jake LaTurner announced in April that he wouldn't seek reelection, prompting five Republicans to jump into the primary race for his safe red seat. Front-runner former state Attorney General Derek Schmidt has high name recognition and a solid donor base in the state: He was his party's gubernatorial nominee in 2022, losing narrowly to Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly, and served as majority leader in the state Senate before his stint as AG. As of mid-July, Schmidt was leading the money race with over $497,000 raised as well as almost $287,000 in favorable outside spending.
His main opponents are former LaTurner staffer Jeff Kahrs, a veteran of both state and federal government who's self-funded more than two-thirds of the $433,000 he's raised, and rancher and feedlot owner Shawn Tiffany, a political newcomer who's raised almost $379,000. All three candidates have emphasized immigration and an "America first" conservative agenda, but Kahrs has branded himself as the "only conservative" in the race and prominently featured his role in the Trump administration (though Schmidt is the one with Trump's endorsement), while Tiffany has attacked Schmidt as a "career politician" and called him a "Republican in name only."
There's only been one poll in this race, and it was from ages ago (mid-May). While nearly half of respondents were still undecided at that point, Schmidt's name recognition clearly made him the candidate to beat: He had 44 percent support compared to Kahrs's 4 percent and Tiffany's 3 percent.
The GOP primary next door in the 3rd District, covering much of the Kansas City metropolitan area, also has a clear frontrunner in Prasanth Reddy, a cancer physician, medical executive and Air Force reservist who's racked up endorsements (and funding) from the national party and prominent GOP leaders. Reddy has played up his immigrant background while emphasizing issues of border security and said he's running to counter "extremist" Democrats in Congress. He's pulled in over $1.3 million, more than eight times the funding as his only competitor in the primary, businesswoman Karen Crnkovich. But even if Reddy runs away with it, Tuesday's race is worth watching as a prequel to what could be a competitive contest this fall, when the winner will face off against Rep. Sharice Davids, the only Democrat in the state's congressional delegation and one of the GOP's top House targets this year.
Washington
Races to watch: 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th congressional districts; governor
Polls close: 11 p.m. Eastern
When Democratic Washington Gov. (and one-time presidential candidate, remember that?) Jay Inslee announced last year that he would not seek reelection to a fourth term in office, he opened the door to one of the few competitive races for governor this fall. There are 28 candidates running in the nonpartisan blanket primary, though only a handful have a shot of making one of the top two slots to advance to the November ballot.
The front-runner among Democrats appears to be Democrat Bob Ferguson, Washington's attorney general, currently in his third term (not to be confused with two other Bob Fergusons who had been running at the behest of a Republican activist, but later dropped out). Ferguson is leading the pack on fundraising, having raised close to $9 million according to the most recent financial disclosures, and has been getting plenty of support from state party leaders, including an endorsement from Inslee, though the party hasn't officially endorsed anyone. He does have some Democratic competition from Washington state Sen. Mark Mullet, though Mullet has struggled to get as much traction as the AG, and trails him in fundraising.
Another top contender is Republican Dave Reichert, a former member of Congress and former sheriff of King County - the most populous county in the state and home to Seattle. Reichert has raised the second-most funds of any candidate, with over $4.4 million. During his seven terms in Congress, he was a moderate with a record of being a consensus builder who wasn't afraid to buck the party line. That could serve him well in the Evergreen State, which hasn't had a Republican governor since the 1980s. Like Ferguson, Reichert is also facing some competition from within his own party: Semi Bird, a former Green Beret who made headlines when, as a member of the Richland School Board, he voted to overturn a mask mandate during the pandemic, in violation of state guidelines. Polls in this race show Reichert and Ferguson are likely to take the top two slots and be on the ballot in November, setting up a tight race between them for the governor's mansion.
If you were paying attention to the 2022 midterms, you may remember the major upset that was Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez's win in Washington's 3rd District, north of Portland, Oregon. The 538 forecast back then showed Gluesenkamp Perez had less than 1-in-20 chance of winning over Republican Joe Kent in this red-leaning district. Now, it looks like we're poised for a rematch as Kent, alongside one other Republican and an independent, is running in the primary, hoping for the chance to unseat the freshman congresswoman in November.
Gluesenkamp Perez and Kent are most likely to make the ballot in November - they easily lead in fundraising and are neck-and-neck in polls. That would set up what looks to be a competitive race this fall. Kent, a former Green Beret and a 2020 election denier (who did concede his own 2022 loss following a recount), once again has the backing of Trump. And while Gluesenkamp Perez has proven to be a moderate Democrat in office (she is co-chair of the Blue Dog Coalition), the results of this primary might give us a clue about whether she can once again overcome her district's conservative lean come November.
In the solidly red 4th District in central Washington, Republican Rep. Dan Newhouse once again finds himself fighting for his political life. Of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump after the events of Jan. 6, Newhouse was one of only two who managed to secure another term in the 2022 election. This time around, Newhouse has two major GOP opponents in former NASCAR driver Jerrold Sessler, who finished behind Newhouse two years ago and initially received Trump's sole endorsement for this race, and veterans advocate Tiffany Smiley, the party's 2022 Senate nominee (who lost to Sen. Patty Murray).
Until Sunday, it more or less appeared that Newhouse was the least pro-Trump candidate, Sessler the most and Smiley somewhere in between. But then Trump further muddled things by also endorsing Smiley, making this yet another primary where he's backed multiple candidates. If Smiley gains at Sessler's expense, that could have major ramifications for who makes it to the general election: Unlike in 2022, local Democrats haven't coalesced around one candidate, making it more likely that two Republicans could advance out of the top-two primary.
Newhouse does have a financial advantage, having raised almost $1.6 million, more than Smiley ($720,000) and Sessler ($409,000) combined. But pro-Smiley groups have spent $539,000 supporting her or attacking the other two Republicans, while pro-Newhouse outfits have invested $190,000. With an eye on winning over conservatives considering Smiley, Newhouse's campaign has attacked her for creating a political action committee ostensibly aimed at raising money for Republican candidates but that the Seattle Times found had mostly worked to retire Smiley's 2022 campaign debt. Newhouse also promoted his efforts to protect Washington farm land from purchase by "Communist China." For her part, Smiley has emphasized her outsider credentials, attacked Newhouse for voting to impeach Trump and claimed that Sessler would like to tax beef. Sessler has understandably played up Trump's support for his campaign as well as his endorsements from the far-right House Freedom Caucus and the state GOP.
Another crowded primary emerged in the 5th District, in eastern Washington, after Republican Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers opted not to seek reelection. Six Republicans and five Democrats are running, including Spokane County Treasurer and former state Sen. Michael Baumgartner, a Republican who is leading the pack in fundraising. As of mid-July, Baumgartner had raised over $790,000, more than double the next highest fundraiser, Republican state Rep. Jacquelin Maycumber. At a debate in June, Baumgartner was one of the few Republicans on stage who said he believed Biden legitimately won in 2020, while Maycumber said she had "grave concerns" about the 2020 results.
With McMorris Rodgers retiring relatively late (she made her announcement in February), there hasn't been much time for candidates to build funds or momentum, meaning other than Baumgartner's financial edge, it's hard to identify a front-runner in the race. In this red-leaning district, which gave Trump 53 percent of the vote in 2020, there's a chance two GOP candidates could advance to the general election, although there are a few credible Democrats running too, such as former State Department officer Carmela Conroy and gynecologist Bernadine Bank.
Finally, the 6th District, covering Washington's Kitsap and Olympic Peninsulas and most of Tacoma, is home to yet another open primary after Democratic Rep. Derek Kilmer announced his retirement. Democrat Hilary Franz, the state's public lands commissioner, suspended a gubernatorial bid to run for this seat and snagged Kilmer's endorsement for her trouble. For a moment it seemed like Franz, who is leading in fundraising, was a shoo-in for the seat, but this has actually shaped up to be a competitive race.
Democratic state Sen. Emily Randall isn't far behind Franz in funds - she's raised over $1 million, close to Franz's $1.3 million - and has collected a stack of high-profile endorsements, including Sen. Patty Murray and former Gov. Christine Gregoire. This is a race worth keeping an eye on as voters might end up seeing double with a Democrat-versus-Democrat general election between two candidates who agree on nearly all the issues.
