Bears-Commanders Thursday night: NFL betting odds, picks, tips

The Chicago Bears head on the road to face the Washington Commanders (-6, 44.5) on Thursday night.

Is this the game when the Bears snap their 14-game losing streak? And what can we expect from a betting standpoint in this one?

Betting analysts Tyler Fulghum, Eric Moody, Anita Marks andSeth Walder are here to provide their thoughts.

Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.

The winless Bears on the road against the 2-2 Commanders. How are you betting this one?

Moody: There is a strong chance that this game will be closer than bettors expect. I'm drawn to the OVER, as this matchup has the makings of an offensive bonanza. The Chicago and Washington defenses rank near the bottom of the league in total yards and points allowed. TheCommanders have gone over the total in two of their past three games, and the Bears have hit the over in all four of their games this season.

Marks: OVER 44, Teaser Commanders PK and OVER 38.5. I love the over in this matchup. The Bears have hit all four weeks, and their defense is allowing 25 points per game. Washington rookie QB Sam Howell has a juicy matchup against Chicago's defense that has allowed a 70% completion percentage and 9 yards per pass attempt to opposing QBs. Also, the Commanders' defense has surrendered 33 points a game during the past three weeks.

Fulghum: I'm betting the Chicago Bears lose their 15th game in a row. Am I willing to lay the full 6 points? That's harder to answer.

It feels comfy to bet against the Bears because Chicago is 5-14-2 ATS under Matt Eberflus, the worst in the NFL over the past two seasons. Justin Fields is also 8-19-2 ATS in his career. But Washington is not exactly a team I trust to cover a large number as a favorite. The Commanders are 0-4 ATS in their past four games as a favorite. They are 1-4 ATS when laying at least four points under Ron Rivera. This game opened at -7, but sharp money has come in on the Bears -- despite their dreadful performance this season -- for a reason.

I think Anita has the right idea using Washington as a 6-point teaser leg. Some teams I would consider pairing with the Commanders in Week 5 include the Colts, Rams and Cardinals.

What is your favorite prop bet for this game?

Marks: DJ Moore OVER 49.5 receiving yards. Moore has two games of over 100 receiving yards, and I expect this to be his third. He is receiving 21% of the target share from Fields.

Walder: Yannick Ngakoue over 0.25 sacks (+105 at DraftKings). I thought Fields was bad at avoiding sacks. Then I saw Howell. Ngakoue has just one sack on the year but has an amazing chance to get another against Howell and his league-leading 14% sack rate. I make the fair price here -134.

Is there anything else you are playing Thursday?

Moody: DJ Moore over 49.5 receiving yards. Moore has surpassed 49.5 receiving yards in two of his past three games. Over that time frame, he has averaged 7.3 targets and 5.6 receptions per game. A key component of the Bears' passing game, Moore is excellent at creating yards after the catch, which makes him a great candidate for big plays. The Bears' offensive line ranks seventh in pass block win rate, while the Commanders' defense ranks 28th in pass rush win rate, so Chicago's offensive line should be able to provide Fields with ample time to connect to Moore.

Moody: Terry McLaurin over 59.5 receiving yards. With a season-high 10 targets and 86 receiving yards, McLaurin had the Eagles' secondary on its heels in Week 4. The Bears' secondary has allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game this season, and it would be wise for offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy to take advantage of McLaurin's chemistry with Howell in a matchup where the Commanders are favored by nearly a touchdown.

Moody: Khalil Herbert over 44.5 rushing yards. Herbert delivered his best performance of the season with 103 rushing yards against the Broncos last week after hearing how rookie Roschon Johnson would take over the Bears' backfield. He averaged a whopping 5.7 rushing yard per attempt. The Chicago offensive line is starting to come together. In terms of run block win rate, this unit ranks second. Herbert should have success as a runner against a Commanders defensive front that ranks 30th in run stop win rate.

Walder: Sam Howell under 31.5 pass attempts (-115). The Commanders are 6-point favorites, and if they can get out to a lead, I suspect they'll want to let the running game take it home, considering Howell's propensity to take sacks and throw picks.

Walder: Montez Sweat over 0.25 sacks (+100 at DraftKings). It's not as large an edge as the Ngakoue one, but any time I see a sack over against Fields, my eyes light up. Fields' 3.07 average time to pass is the third-longest in the NFL, and he has always had a sack problem (11% sack rate this year). I make the fair price -119.