How each top 2020 college football team becomes a national title contender

Every college football team begins a given season with questions to answer. Some just have far more than others. This time last year, we were wondering if Justin Fields was ready to dominate at Ohio State or if Joe Burrow's late-2018 surge at LSU meant something significant. He was, and it did.[br /][br /]This year the questions shift, but the teams most well-positioned for a title run are about the same.[br /][br /][Ads /][br /]The raw number of questions we have about a team says a lot. If you simply count the "ifs" -- if this happens, if that happens -- it takes to turn a team into a true national title contender, that drops some major hints about the teams most likely to make deep runs.[br /][br /]Below are the 18 teams with title odds better than +10000 per Caesars Sportsbook, sorted by the number of "ifs" it takes to make each a true title contender. Give me enough "ifs," and I can make anybody a champ, but the likely title winner will come from this pool.[br /][br /][i]A quick note: We're not going to waste time with things like "If their quarterback stays healthy" or "If the injury bug doesn't devastate a certain unit before a key game." Those things are obvious and apply to every team in the country. For the most part, we're not going to focus on schedules, either. We're focused only on the quality of the team at hand.[/i][br /][br /][b]Jump to a team: [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="#Clemson" ]Clemson[/url] | [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="#OhioState" ]Ohio State[/url] | [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="#Alabama" ]Alabama[/url] | [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="#Georgia" ]Georgia[/url][br/][br /][url TARGET="_blank" HREF="#Florida" ]Florida[/url] | [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="#LSU" ]LSU[/url] | [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="#PennState" ]Penn State[/url]|[url TARGET="_blank" HREF="#Oklahoma" ]Oklahoma[/url]|[url TARGET="_blank" HREF="#Oregon" ]Oregon[/url] | [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="#NotreDame" ]Notre Dame[/url][br/][br /][url TARGET="_blank" HREF="#Texas" ]Texas[/url] | [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="#Auburn" ]Auburn[/url] | [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="#TexasAM" ]Texas A&M[/url] | [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="#Michigan" ]Michigan[/url] | [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="#OklahomaState" ]Oklahoma State[/url] | [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="#Wisconsin" ]Wisconsin[/url] | [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="#USC" ]USC[/url] | [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="#Miami" ]Miami[/url][/b][br /][br /][h2][b]2 Ifs[/b][/h2][br /][h3][b][url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/228/clemson-tigers" ]Clemson Tigers[/url] (+250 national title odds)[/b][/h3][br /][b]If ... the offensive line is at least solid.[/b]Clemson has made five straight CFPs, winning two national titles and, with the ACC playing at a mediocre-average level for three straight years, continues to boast the easiest playoff road of any major contender. That, plus big-time star power (quarterback [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4360310/trevor-lawrence" ]Trevor Lawrence[/url], running back [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4239996/travis-etienne" ]Travis Etienne[/url]), veteran role players and a glorious incoming recruiting class, make Dabo Swinney's program a title favorite even without injured star receiver [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4360306/justyn-ross" ]Justyn Ross[/url], who's [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/29252553/clemson-wr-justyn-ross-miss-2020-season-spinal-injury" ]out for the season[/url], if not longer.[br /][br /]Losing four offensive linemen with 126 career starts hurts, however. The cupboard is far from bare: Swinney's insistence on deep rotations (and Clemson's propensity for blowing teams out) means the Tigers return four players who logged at least 325 snaps, and three of them (tackle [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4360320/jackson-carman" ]Jackson Carman[/url], guard [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4240005/matt-bockhorst" ]Matt Bockhorst[/url], center [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4035477/cade-stewart" ]Cade Stewart[/url]) have starting experience. Still, a unit that has never seemed quite as strong as the rest of the offense could be a weak link until proven otherwise.[br /][br /][b]If ... a young safety corps doesn't suffer too many glitches.[/b] [/b]Coordinator Brent Venables' defense was unique last season in that it was driven by a devastating perimeter attack, not a dominant line. The line was still good, but it was awfully young and slightly more mortal (14th in rushing success rate allowed*, 39th in stuff rate**), while the pass defense was devastating. That should flip back in 2020. The line brings back eight of the nine players who logged 100-plus snaps and welcomes a new batch of blue-chippers, but the secondary has to replace safeties [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/4035463/k'von-wallace" ]K'Von Wallace[/url] and [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/3728263/tanner-muse" ]Tanner Muse[/url], cornerback [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/4239995/aj-terrell" ]A.J. Terrell[/url], plus [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/4035462/isaiah-simmons" ]Isaiah Simmons[/url], the best outside linebacker [i]and[/i] nickelback in the country.[br /][br /]Corner [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4360307/derion-kendrick" ]Derion Kendrick[/url] and safety [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4035468/nolan-turner" ]Nolan Turner[/url] are both veterans, but Venables will have to skip heavily into a pool of freshmen and sophomores -- nickel [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4360305/mike-jones-jr" ]Mike Jones Jr.[/url], corner [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4426344/andrew-booth-jr" ]Andrew Booth Jr.[/url], etc. And an extra big-play glitch or two could make trips to places like Florida State and Notre Dame awfully tricky.[br /][br /][i]* Success rate is a go-to efficiency measure of mine: It tracks how frequently you're gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second or 100% on third and fourth.[/i][br /][br /][i]** Stuff rate measures how frequently intentional rushes (so, not sacks) are stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.[/i][br /][br /][h3][b][url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/194/ohio-state-buckeyes" ]Ohio State Buckeyes[/url] (+300)[/b][/h3][br /][b]If ... the pass rush holds up. [/b][url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/4241986/chase-young" ]Chase Young[/url] was unfair. Despite being increasingly double-teamed as 2019 went on, the now-former Buckeyes defensive end generated pressure on 19% of his pass rushes (easily the most among players with 200-plus attempts) and sacked QBs 16.5 times (also the most). It's been a while since Ohio State didn't have an incredible pass-rusher, but that bar's probably too high for anyone to clear.[br /][br /]One way or another, the Buckeyes will have to continue generating high pressure. The OSU secondary has to replace first-round cornerbacks [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/4241984/jeff-okudah" ]Jeff Okudah[/url] and [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/3915506/damon-arnette" ]Damon Arnette[/url] and safeties [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/4040613/jordan-fuller" ]Jordan Fuller[/url] and [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4241996/brendon-white" ]Brendon White[/url], and while corner [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4241995/shaun-wade" ]Shaun Wade[/url] is a proven entity and fellow juniors [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4361345/cameron-brown" ]Cameron Brown[/url] and [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4361342/sevyn-banks" ]Sevyn Banks[/url] have shined when given the chance, the best favor you can give a newish secondary is a stressed-out quarterback. Ends [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4426412/zach-harrison" ]Zach Harrison[/url] and [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4361340/tyreke-smith" ]Tyreke Smith[/url] are former blue-chippers, but neither enjoyed even a 10% pressure rate; senior [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4040608/jonathon-cooper" ]Jonathon Cooper[/url]'s return from an injury will help, too, but new coordinator Kerry Coombs might have to get a bit creative to get pressure.[br /][br /][b]If ... young, high-upside wide receivers prove that upside. [/b]The Buckeyes' offense was balanced and brilliant in 2019, and it returns quarterback [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4362887/justin-fields" ]Justin Fields[/url] and three linemen who earned all-conference honors, but [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/4241985/jk-dobbins" ]J.K. Dobbins[/url] (2,003 rushing yards) and three of last season's top five receivers all depart.[br /][br /]No one is a sure thing, but the replacements are close to it. Carries will go to some combination of sophomores [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4361354/master-teague" ]Master Teague III[/url] and [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4429481/marcus-crowley" ]Marcus Crowley[/url], redshirt freshman [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4426482/steele-chambers" ]Steele Chambers[/url] and Oklahoma transfer [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4241401/trey-sermon" ]Trey Sermon[/url], while [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4361370/chris-olave" ]Chris Olave[/url] and blue-chip sophomore [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4569618/garrett-wilson" ]Garrett Wilson[/url] return after combining for 79 catches and 1,281 yards. Still, diversity was a huge plus in the Buckeyes' receiving corps (six players caught 20-plus passes), and that means a few options from a pool of other recent blue-chippers -- sophomores [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4426388/jameson-williams" ]Jameson Williams[/url], [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4361351/jaelen-gill" ]Jaelen Gill[/url] and injury-prone [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4361347/kamryn-babb" ]Kamryn Babb[/url], plus four incoming freshmen led by all-world [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-sports/football/recruiting/player/_/id/229946/julian-fleming" ]Julian Fleming[/url] -- have to produce immediately, especially with a Week 2 trip to Oregon looming.[br /][br /][h3][b][url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/333/alabama-crimson-tide" ]Alabama Crimson Tide[/url] (+500)[/b][/h3][br /][b]If ... small-sample [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4241464/mac-jones" ]Mac Jones[/url] becomes large-sample Mac Jones.[/b] [/b]As incredible as incoming freshman quarterback [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-sports/football/recruiting/player/_/id/223841/bryce-young" ]Bryce Young[/url] could eventually become for Bama, the Tide's returning incumbent is [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/28972744/evaluating-mac-jones-loaded-wr-draft-class-more-idle-college-football-thoughts" ]already awfully good[/url]. In basically 4 games (a sample that includes starts against excellent Auburn and Michigan defenses), he completed 69% of his passes, and his QBR of 91.1 would have been fourth in the country with a qualifying number of attempts. His passer rating was better than [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/3915511/joe-burrow" ]Joe Burrow[/url]'s against Auburn and better than Fields' against Michigan.[br /][br /]Assuming he fends off Young, Jones will lose two first-round talents in wide receivers [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/4241463/jerry-jeudy" ]Jerry Jeudy[/url] and [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/4241475/henry-ruggs" ]Henry Ruggs III[/url] but [i]return[/i]first-round talents in [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4241478/devonta-smith" ]DeVonta Smith[/url] and [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4372016/jaylen-waddle" ]Jaylen Waddle[/url], plus a new, young batch of blue-chippers led by [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-sports/football/recruiting/player/_/id/237754/thaiu-jones-bell" ]Thaiu Jones-Bell[/url]. He'll also have running back [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4241457/najee-harris" ]Najee Harris[/url] beside him and four returning starters, including left tackle [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4241466/alex-leatherwood" ]Alex Leatherwood[/url], in front of him. He'll have what he needs; he just needs to prove that last year's partial-season performance becomes this year's full season.[br /][br /][b]If ... a retooled secondary jells quickly. [/b]The Alabama defense has been in a weird state of transition of late. In 2018, the Tide fielded an inexperienced secondary that was torched by Clemson in the national title game; in 2019, the secondary was awesome, but thanks to injury and turnover, the front seven was one of the youngest Nick Saban has fielded. After ranking first in defensive SP+ every year from 2014 to 2017, Bama fell all the way to ... seventh in 2018 and third in 2019. The horror.[br /][br /]The imbalance remains: The line returns four of last season's top five, and the linebacking corps returns five of seven, plus returnees from injury in [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4241471/dylan-moses" ]Dylan Moses[/url] and [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/3925353/joshua-mcmillon" ]Joshua McMillon[/url]. The secondary, however, takes another hit, losing safeties [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/4241470/xavier-mckinney" ]Xavier McKinney[/url], [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/4040975/jared-mayden" ]Jared Mayden[/url] and [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/4040963/shyheim-carter" ]Shyheim Carter[/url] and cornerback [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/4040966/trevon-diggs" ]Trevon Diggs[/url]. Corner [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4372012/patrick-surtain-ii" ]Patrick Surtain II[/url] is elite, but he'll be surrounded by freshmen, sophomores and veteran backups. Alabama faces one of the best passing attacks in the country (USC's) in the opening game, too, so we won't have to wait to find out what the Tide have.[br /][br /][h2][b]3 Ifs[/b][/h2][br /][h3][b][url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/61/georgia-bulldogs" ]Georgia Bulldogs[/url] (+700)[/b][/h3][br /][b]If ... [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4037213/jamie-newman" ]Jamie Newman[/url] lives up to the PFF hype.[/b] [/b]Among top-level contenders, Georgia enters 2020 with the most proven defense and least proven offense. The Dawgs ranked first in defensive SP+ last season, but as they learned, you still have to score points. Georgia scored a combined 29 in two losses, and it will be breaking in a new offensive coordinator (Todd Monken) and a transfer quarterback on the fly.[br /][br /]Newman dominated the ball at Wake Forest last season, averaging both 29.5 pass attempts and 12.2 non-sack rushes per game. He took more sacks than departed starter [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/4240689/jake-fromm" ]Jake Fromm[/url] and averaged fewer adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A*) as well: 7.5 for Fromm, 7.2 for Newman. But the graders at Pro Football Focus think his ceiling is awfully high -- they rank him as the [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/28836748/ranking-college-football-top-10-qbs-2020" ]third-best returning QB in FBS[/url]. If they're right, coach Kirby Smart has just about everything he needs.[br /][br /][i]* ANY/A = (passing yards + 20*TDs - 45*INTs - sack yardage) / (passes + sacks)[/i][br /][br /][b]If ... one more receiver emerges. [/b]The Georgia receiving corps was young, banged up and disappointing in 2019. But sophomore [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4426354/george-pickens" ]George Pickens[/url] returns after a late-season surge, fellow sophomore [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4426341/dominick-blaylock" ]Dominick Blaylock[/url] has obvious potential, senior [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4035851/demetris-robertson" ]Demetris Robertson[/url] gets one last chance to live up to blue-chip hype, and tight end [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4240023/tre'-mckitty" ]Tre' McKitty[/url], a Florida State grad transfer, joins the mix along with four-star freshmen.[br /][br /]Monken will need at least one newbie to make a steady contribution alongside Pickens and the others.[br /][br /][b]If ... the havoc rate continues to climb. [/b]The only possible area for improvement for UGA's defense comes in the disruption department -- the Dawgs ranked just 41st in havoc rate* and 89th in sack rate last season. Creating a few more negative plays and turnover chances would mean a few extra favors for the offense. Edge rusher [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4379409/azeez-ojulari" ]Azeez Ojulari[/url] led the team with 5.5 sacks as a freshman and could turn into something special, but he's not quite there yet.[br /][br /][i]* Havoc rate = your total tackles for loss, passes defensed (interceptions and breakups) and forced fumbles divided by total plays.[/i][br /][br /][h3][b][url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/57/florida-gators" ]Florida Gators[/url] (+1,200)[/b][/h3][br /][b]If ... the third-down defense improves (and without [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/3916409/jonathan-greenard" ]Jonathan Greenard[/url]). [/b]Defensive coordinator Todd Grantham likes to keep the game simple when possible: If it's third-and-long, he's bringing pressure. When it works, it works -- the Gators were eighth overall in sack rate, first on blitz downs (second-and-super-long, third-and-5 or more). But it didn't get the defense off the field as well as it should have.[br /][br /]The Gators ranked just 53rd in third-and-long success rate allowed, 54th on third-and-medium. And that was [i]with[/i] Greenard racking up 9.5 sacks and 15.5 tackles for loss. Most of the lineup outside of Greenard returns -- 12 of 17 players with 250-plus snaps -- and while first-round corner [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/4240596/cj-henderson" ]CJ Henderson[/url] is gone, [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4240595/marco-wilson" ]Marco Wilson[/url] is back, and sophomore [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4567399/kaiir-elam" ]Kaiir Elam[/url] is ready for a star turn. There is no specific weakness that needs addressing; it's just been a whole-vs.-sum-of-parts issue on third downs, and it has to be rectified.[br /][br /][b]If ... the offensive line carries its weight this time. [/b]With center [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/3915096/nick-buchanan" ]Nick Buchanan[/url] as the only returning starter last season, it was clear Florida's O-line might be an issue. Sure enough, Florida ranked 53rd in sack rate allowed, and the run game was disastrously inefficient aside from random [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/4034952/la'mical-perine" ]La'Mical Perine[/url] explosions. While Perine replacement [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4360238/dameon-pierce" ]Dameon Pierce[/url] is explosive in his own right, the line really needs to pick up some slack. Buchanan is gone, but including Mississippi State transfer [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4035374/stewart-reese" ]Stewart Reese[/url], six players with starting experience return. Four are seniors. No excuses.[br /][br /][b]If ... Dan Mullen's skill-corps recruiting bears fruit.[/b] [/b][url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4034946/kyle-trask" ]Kyle Trask[/url] not only filled in for an injured [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4034948/feleipe-franks" ]Feleipe Franks[/url] but also threw for 2,941 yards and ranked 12th in the nation in QBR despite the inefficient run game. But while high-efficiency tight end [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4360248/kyle-pitts" ]Kyle Pitts[/url] returns, four of last season's top six wideouts do not. [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4241988/trevon-grimes" ]Trevon Grimes[/url], [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4360233/jacob-copeland" ]Jacob Copeland[/url] and some combination of senior [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4240600/kadarius-toney" ]Kadarius Toney[/url], Texas transfer [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4259352/jordan-pouncey" ]Jordan Pouncey[/url], a trio of redshirt freshmen and a pair of four-star 6-foot-4 freshmen will need to contribute. There are lots of former star recruits in that mix. Someone needs to live up to the hype quickly.[br /][br /][h3][b][url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/99/lsu-tigers" ]LSU Tigers[/url] (+1,800)[/b][/h3][br /][b]If ... a couple of new hires clear an extremely high bar.[/b] [/b]Theoretically, Dave Aranda and Joe Brady don't leave behind the toughest jobs in the world. Aranda, the now-former LSU defensive coordinator who left to take the Baylor head-coaching gig, left successor Bo Pelini with the best cornerback in college football ([url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4426434/derek-stingley-jr" ]Derek Stingley Jr.[/url]), a seasoned defensive front and a high-upside linebacking corps with pieces like [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4362631/micah-baskerville" ]Micah Baskerville[/url] and [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4362636/damone-clark" ]Damone Clark[/url]. (LSU has added North Dakota State star [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4040940/jabril-cox" ]Jabril Cox[/url] to the mix, too.) But Pelini hasn't been part of an elite FBS-level defense since 2010 at Nebraska.[br /][br /][Ads /][br /]Brady left his post as passing-game coordinator to become an NFL playcaller, but he leaves behind Biletnikoff winner [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4362628/ja'marr-chase" ]Ja'Marr Chase[/url] and [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4362630/terrace-marshall-jr" ]Terrace Marshall Jr.[/url], not to mention his plays, which don't expire just because he left. Coordinator Steve Ensminger is still around, and Brady replacement Scott Linehan has an immense résumé that includes 16 years as an NFL head coach or offensive coordinator. But of the past 12 NFL offenses he was associated with, only three ranked better than 10th in offensive DVOA, and four ranked either worst or second-worst in the NFL.[br /][br /]Both Pelini and Linehan have been parts of great units in their long careers. But the bar here is incredibly high.[br /][br /][b]If ... [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4242210/myles-brennan" ]Myles Brennan[/url] is ready. [/b]The bar's even higher for the player who has to succeed Joe Burrow. I mean, hey, all you have to do is replicate the greatest passing season in the history of college football (5,671 yards, 60 TDs, six interceptions, 76% completion rate)! Brennan was a blue-chip recruit and looked fine in garbage-time opportunities, but he's all but guaranteed to be less successful than his predecessor, and that's always a tricky thing to navigate.[br /][br /][b]If ... a better pass rush emerges.[/b] [/b]LSU's defense came around late in the season after overcoming some injuries, but the pass rush was average [i]with[/i] edge rusher [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/4242205/k'lavon-chaisson" ]K'Lavon Chaisson[/url], and now he's gone. If the offense regresses at all (and it probably will), the defense will have to pick up slack.[br /][br /][h3][url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/213/penn-state-nittany-lions" ]Penn State Nittany Lions[/url] (+3,000)[/h3][br /][b]If ... Kirk Ciarrocca's got receivers.[/b] James Franklin's Nittany Lions boast maybe the best defensive player in the country in linebacker [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4361423/micah-parsons" ]Micah Parsons[/url], and with three high-caliber running backs (led by [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4259588/journey-brown" ]Journey Brown[/url]) and a veteran offensive line, they could have their most efficient run game since Larry Johnson was donning the white helmet. And Ciarrocca, who arrives as offensive coordinator after helming a physical, top-10-caliber Minnesota offense, will know what to do with said run game.[br /][br /]In [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/2310331/tyler-johnson" ]Tyler Johnson[/url] and [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4360939/rashod-bateman" ]Rashod Bateman[/url], however, he had a couple of unbelievable wide receivers at Minnesota. That doesn't appear to be a luxury Penn State can offer. [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4361411/pat-freiermuth" ]Pat Freiermuth[/url] leads an elite tight end unit, but [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4361409/jahan-dotson" ]Jahan Dotson[/url] is the only returning WR who caught more than nine balls. There are plenty of former four-star recruits in the receiver room -- sophomore [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4361412/daniel-george" ]Daniel George[/url], plus four true and redshirt freshmen -- but will they provide enough danger for Ciarrocca's "run, run and hit 'em on the RPO" offense to click?[br /][br /][b]If ... [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4259592/sean-clifford" ]Sean Clifford[/url] does a decent [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4240756/tanner-morgan" ]Tanner Morgan[/url] impersonation[/b]. Morgan boasted a 173.8 passer rating against ranked opponents last season for Minnesota; Clifford's was just 118.3 in his first season as a starter. Can he develop the way Ciarrocca will need him to?[br /][br /][b]If ... the passing-downs glitches cease. [/b]Brent Pry's PSU defenses have been consistently excellent, ranking 10th, 11th and 10th in defensive SP+ the past three seasons. With a junior- and senior-heavy rotation returning, it's unlikely that ranking will fall.[br /][br /]For the ranking to [i]rise[/i], however, the Nittany Lions have to plug a massive leak. On standard downs (first downs, second-and-7 or fewer, third- or fourth-and-4 or fewer), Penn State ranked 10th in success rate allowed and fourth in marginal explosiveness*; on passing downs, however: 40th and 122nd, respectively. In its losses to Minnesota and Ohio State, Morgan and [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4362887/justin-fields" ]Justin Fields[/url] were a combined 18-for-20 passing for 310 yards. Passing downs are supposed to favor the defense![br /][br /][i]* Marginal explosiveness is my look at the magnitude of successful plays, adjusted for down, distance and field position.[/i][br /][br /][h2]Four Ifs[/h2][br /][h3][url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/201/oklahoma-sooners" ]Oklahoma Sooners[/url] (+1,800)[/h3][br /][b]If ... the run defense finds some oomph.[/b] After crumbling to 84th in defensive SP+ in 2018, OU's defense rebounded to 48th in Alex Grinch's first season as coordinator. But the run defense was all-or-nothing: OU was sixth in stuff rate (returning end [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4360274/ronnie-perkins" ]Ronnie Perkins[/url], tackle [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4360277/jalen-redmond" ]Jalen Redmond[/url] and linebacker [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4360259/nik-bonitto" ]Nik Bonitto[/url] all made 10-plus stuffs) but 80th in rushing success rate allowed and 103rd in rushing marginal explosiveness. Of four returning contributing tackles, none is listed at even 280 pounds. Grinch loves speed, but there's probably still a minimum girth level you have to clear.[br /][br /][b]If ... "red zone stops" become a thing again.[/b] I define scoring opportunities as first downs inside the opponent's 40 (or touchdowns from outside the 40). Oklahoma allowed 5.0 points per opportunity last season (106th in FBS). The Sooners were 127th in success rate allowed on first-and-goal, 124th inside the 10. Youth or not, that is inexcusably bad for a team that recruits at a top-15 level.[br /][br /][b]If ... Lincoln Riley's QB hot streak continues.[/b] [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4426339/spencer-rattler" ]Spencer Rattler[/url] is a redshirt freshman who's thrown 11 career passes. He's also the No. 3 Heisman favorite, per Caesars Sportsbook. Behold the power of Riley's track record. The next time the Sooners have a quarterback finish outside of the top four in the Heisman voting will be the first time since 2014. Rattler and sophomore [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4360271/tanner-mordecai" ]Tanner Mordecai[/url] are both former blue-chippers, and it's fair to assume they'll thrive in the most QB-friendly attack in football. But we don't know for sure that they will until they do.[br /][br /][b]If ... [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4241397/charleston-rambo" ]Charleston Rambo[/url] or [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4426370/jadon-haselwood" ]Jadon Haselwood[/url] becomes a big-time, No. 1 WR. [/b]Last season's receiving corps was thin by Oklahoma standards: Only two players were targeted more than 30 times, and the leader, [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/4241389/ceedee-lamb" ]CeeDee Lamb[/url], is now a Dallas Cowboy. Rambo was an excellent No. 2, Haselwood was a top prospect in 2019, and OU added decent transfers in UCLA's [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4035818/theo-howard" ]Theo Howard[/url] and Marshall's [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4038464/obi-obialo" ]Obi Obialo[/url]. Lamb left a high bar, though, and as with Rattler/Mordecai, we won't know if the new No. 1 will clear it until he does.[br /][br /][h3][url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2483/oregon-ducks" ]Oregon Ducks[/url] (+2,500)[/h3][br /][b]If ... Joe Moorhead finds his QB.[/b] After averaging an offensive SP+ ranking of 5.9 from 2007 through 2016, Oregon's average has fallen to 27.3 over the past three seasons. Coach Mario Cristobal not only needs new offensive coordinator Moorhead to find a rhythm, he needs it immediately: The Ducks' first two games are against North Dakota State and Ohio State.[br /][br /]Last season's top three RBs and five of six WRs return, but Moorhead needs a QB who can properly run his RPO attack. Is it Boston College transfer [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4035312/anthony-brown" ]Anthony Brown[/url]? Sophomore [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4360689/tyler-shough" ]Tyler Shough[/url]? Blue-chip freshman [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-sports/football/recruiting/player/_/id/229888/jay-butterfield" ]Jay Butterfield[/url]?[br /][br /][b]If ... a rebuilt offensive line holds up early.[/b] Consensus All-American left tackle [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4373825/penei-sewell" ]Penei Sewell[/url] is a good starting point for any line, but five other linemen who had combined for 202 career starts are gone. Can career backups and/or newcomers fill in the gaps and keep the new QB of choice upright against two dynamite defenses early on?[br /][br /][b]If ... [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4426326/kayvon-thibodeaux" ]Kayvon Thibodeaux[/url] does what we think he can do.[/b] In Andy Avalos' first season as defensive coordinator, the Ducks improved from 50th to eighth in defensive SP+. They were brilliant in big-play prevention and efficient against the pass, and that was without a certain level of disruption up front: They were 72nd in sack rate and 49th in stuff rate.[br /][br /]With nearly all of last season's secondary back, including ace safety [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4373809/jevon-holland" ]Jevon Holland[/url] and a trio of strong cornerbacks, the pass defense is set to thrive again. If Thibodeaux, an all-world DE recruit in 2019, can follow up on a lovely freshman campaign, the Ducks could have a high-end pass rush, too. Thibodeaux had 14 TFLs, nine sacks and 16 run stuffs; he could use some more help, but he might only improve from here on out.[br /][br /][b]If ... Oregon can better force opponents off schedule. [/b]Pass defense makes a bigger difference when opponents have to pass. Oregon was fourth in passing-downs success rate but only 57th on standard downs. Linebackers [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4242497/isaac-slade-matautia" ]Isaac Slade-Matautia[/url] and [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4426353/mase-funa" ]Mase Funa[/url] have massive run-disruption potential, but they have to live up to it.[br /][br /][h3][url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/87/notre-dame-fighting-irish" ]Notre Dame Fighting Irish[/url] (+2,800)[/h3][br /][b]If ... a new receiving corps clicks. [/b]Brian Kelly's Fighting Irish have ranked between eighth and 19th in SP+ for five consecutive years. (Not a coincidence -- their past seven recruiting classes have all ranked between ninth and 16th, per ESPN.) That's pretty good living! But he wants more: He dumped offensive coordinator Chip Long in favor of 27-year-old Tom Rees, who has worked for three years with quarterback [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4046678/ian-book" ]Ian Book[/url].[br /][br /]Four of Book's top five targets are gone, to be replaced by Northwestern transfer [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4035656/bennett-skowronek" ]Ben Skowronek[/url], big-play veteran [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4046686/javon-mckinley" ]Javon McKinley[/url], and ... well ... we'll see. There are lots of youngsters to choose from, including sophomore [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4372770/braden-lenzy" ]Braden Lenzy[/url] and blue-chip freshman [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-sports/football/recruiting/player/_/id/235142/jordan-johnson" ]Jordan Johnson[/url]. Someone needs to come through.[br /][br /][b]If ... a star running back emerges from a crowded race. [/b]The Irish return three running backs ([url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4372765/c'bo-flemister" ]C'Bo Flemister[/url], [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4258584/jafar-armstrong" ]Jafar Armstrong[/url] and [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4361327/jahmir-smith" ]Jahmir Smith[/url]) who didn't do much with the first-string action they were given. The line returns six players who have combined for 115 career starts, but the backs have to do their part. And if they don't, you figure it's only a matter of time until blue-chip freshman [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-sports/football/recruiting/player/_/id/229548/chris-tyree" ]Chris Tyree[/url] gets a long look.[br /][br /][b]If ... young DBs play like veterans. [/b]Thanks to a diverse pass rush and a veteran secondary, the Irish defense ranked ninth in ANY/A allowed last season. But both starting safeties and lead corner Tony Pride Jr. are gone, and while veterans like corner [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4372761/tariq-bracy" ]TaRiq Bracy[/url] and NC State transfer [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4036169/nick-mccloud" ]Nick McCloud[/url] could be ready for larger roles, success will be determined by how many blue-chippers from the 2019 class -- sophomore [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4575517/kyle-hamilton" ]Kyle Hamilton[/url] and redshirt freshmen [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4426464/kj-wallace" ]KJ Wallace[/url], [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4427470/litchfield-ajavon" ]Litchfield Ajavon[/url], [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4428411/isaiah-rutherford" ]Isaiah Rutherford[/url], [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4427404/cam-hart" ]Cam Hart[/url] -- look the part early in their careers.[br /][br /][b]If ... the Irish overcome a lack of beef. [/b]Run defense was an issue -- the Irish were 49th in rushing success rate allowed -- and as with Oklahoma, that can be tied partially to pure size. Only two of 10 returning contributing linemen are listed above 286 pounds. A linebacking corps led by [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4258599/jeremiah-owusu-koramoah" ]Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah[/url] could be incredible, but it helps when your linemen can occupy blockers better.[br /][br /][h3][url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/251/texas-longhorns" ]Texas Longhorns[/url] (+2,800)[/h3][br /][b]If ... 2019 pain means 2020 gain for the secondary. [/b]The stats were much more pessimistic about Texas than the eyeballs last season, and the stats were eventually proved correct. But those same numbers are quite a bit higher on the Longhorns this time around. Why? Experience. This defense had a ridiculously young spine (tackles, ILBs, safeties) last season, and the sophomore-heavy secondary suffered a run of injuries as well. The Horns now return 10 defensive backs who logged triple-digit snaps and add a new batch of blue-chippers. This unit should be both talented and experienced enough to thrive.[br /][br /][b]If ... sophomores figure out run support.[/b] The run defense was only slightly better than the pass defense, and it might be up to high-upside youngsters -- sophomore tackles [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4362117/keondre-coburn" ]Keondre Coburn[/url], [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4362116/moro-ojomo" ]Moro Ojomo[/url] and [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4428617/t'vondre-sweat" ]T'Vondre Sweat[/url] and sophomore/junior linebackers [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4362094/joseph-ossai" ]Joseph Ossai[/url], [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4362091/ayodele-adeoye" ]Ayodele Adeoye[/url], [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4572453/juwan-mitchell" ]Juwan Mitchell[/url] and [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4362088/demarvion-overshown" ]DeMarvion Overshown[/url] -- to solve.[br /][br /][b]If ... hiring Mike Yurcich means verticality. [/b]Texas improved from 27th to 10th in offensive SP+ last season, but coach Tom Herman still attempted a coordinator upgrade by bringing in Ohio State's Mike Yurcich. The biggest potential improvement Yurcich can bring to the table is better vertical passing. Ohio State averaged 10.7 air yards per pass attempt last season, 18th in the country. (The Buckeyes were also 13th in completion rate.) Texas: 46th at 9.5. The Longhorns weren't great at completing these passes, either. If [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4241820/sam-ehlinger" ]Sam Ehlinger[/url] and deep threat [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4362107/brennan-eagles" ]Brennan Eagles[/url] form a more consistent partnership this season, this offense has what it needs.[br /][br /][b]If ... [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4572455/jake-smith" ]Jake Smith[/url] plays like the next [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/4039050/devin-duvernay" ]Devin Duvernay[/url].[/b] The Longhorns will still need efficiency, though, and last season they got that primarily from the quick pass. Slot man (and new Baltimore Raven) Duvernay enjoyed an unreal 64% success rate over his 130 pass targets; he could take a horizontal pass and burst upfield better than anyone. Blue-chip sophomore Smith backed him up and enjoyed a 56% success rate -- if he can continue to help UT stay on schedule and pick up easy yards, the deep shots are that much more likely to succeed.[br /][br /][h3][url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2/auburn-tigers" ]Auburn Tigers[/url] (+3,000)[/h3][br /][b]If (x2) ... [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4567218/bo-nix" ]Bo Nix[/url] has it.[/b] We're counting this one twice because of both how important good quarterbacking is to winning a title and how many mixed impressions Nix gave us last season. He was thrown into the deep end as a true freshman, and he provided sure bright spots. He led a late comeback against Oregon, and in easy victories over Kent State, Mississippi State and Arkansas, he completed 74% of his passes with a 215.3 passer rating. Great![br /][br /]His other 10 games: 55% completion rate, 109.9 rating.[br /][br /]He's got his top three receivers back, and he's more experienced, but the math is pretty simple. For Auburn to contend, the Tigers have to beat North Carolina early, take down Texas A&M and LSU at home and at least split games at Georgia and Alabama. You're not going to do that without a dynamite quarterback. Nix and new offensive coordinator Chad Morris have quite a task in front of them.[br /][br /][b]If ... the run game somehow improves despite turnover.[/b] As inefficient as the passing game was, the run game was only so much better (61st in rushing success rate). The Tigers could use a steadying influence on the ground, but they have to figure out how to improve without leading rusher [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4242520/jatarvious-whitlow" ]JaTarvious Whitlow[/url] and six of last season's top seven linemen. Ouch. New offensive line coach Jack Bicknell Jr. is taking on an overhaul. Good luck.[br /][br /][Ads /][br /][b]If ... a new secondary holds up.[/b] There are far fewer concerns on defense, and that's been the case since coach Gus Malzahn hired Kevin Steele as coordinator in 2016. Steele has to replace two top-50 draft picks on the line (tackle [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/4035495/derrick-brown" ]Derrick Brown[/url], end [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/4035494/marlon-davidson" ]Marlon Davidson[/url]), but the bigger concern comes in the secondary: Last season's top four are all gone. Steele deploys a lot of DBs, but only one returning cornerback ([url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4371973/roger-mccreary" ]Roger McCreary[/url], who's fantastic) logged over 75 snaps. He's going to have to rely on either unused veterans, juco transfer [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-sports/football/recruiting/player/_/id/237974/marco-domio" ]Marco Domio[/url] or extreme youth -- or perhaps all of the above -- to hold the fort.[br /][br /][h3][url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/245/texas-a&m-aggies" ]Texas A&M Aggies[/url] (+3,000)[/h3][br /][b]If ... the defensive line rebounds.[/b] Jimbo Fisher's first two seasons as A&M coach have seen clear defensive improvement, but last season's run defense was a bit volatile: A&M was 12th in stuff rate but 72nd in rushing success rate and a pushover in short yardage.[br /][br /]Outside of star tackle [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/4035245/justin-madubuike" ]Justin Madubuike[/url], the rotation was also quite young. Freshman end [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4426359/demarvin-leal" ]DeMarvin Leal[/url] and four sophomores played key roles, and while Madubuike is now a Baltimore Raven, the rest of the rotation returns mostly intact. It's the same for a linebacking corps that includes disruptors [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4240900/buddy-johnson" ]Buddy Johnson[/url] and [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4240909/anthony-hines" ]Anthony Hines III[/url]. If experience leads to consistency, this could be a top-15 D.[br /][br /][b]If ... a shutdown corner emerges. [/b]LSU, Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, Florida ... all the SEC teams ahead of Texas A&M last season had at least one dynamite cornerback. Great cover guys tend to allow under 5 adjusted yards per attempt (like ANY/A, but without the sacks) in coverage, but [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4240903/myles-jones" ]Myles Jones[/url] was at 8.2, [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4240790/elijah-blades" ]Elijah Blades[/url] 9.0. Can these veterans improve? Might coordinator Mike Elko need to turn to younger options?[br /][br /][b]If ... 2019 was [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4240904/kellen-mond" ]Kellen Mond[/url]'s mulligan.[/b] Because of his potential and the number of contenders A&M played, I named Mond as [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/27402100/the-25-most-important-players-college-football-playoff-chase" ]college football's most important player[/url] last August. (I ranked Joe Burrow second. Almost nailed it.) Granted, he was working with a young, banged-up skill corps, but he still had a disappointing season, going from 6.6 ANY/A in 2018 to 6.0.[br /][br /]He has a senior season to right wrongs. Running back [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4426891/isaiah-spiller" ]Isaiah Spiller[/url] and leading receiver [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4240895/jhamon-ausbon" ]Jhamon Ausbon[/url] return, and the list of young, blue-chip skill guys is increasing. The line returns four starters too. Mond has one last shot to break through and a better cast for pulling it off.[br /][br /][b]If ... the big plays return.[/b] Among A&M's offensive problems was a definitive lack of easy points. The Aggies enjoyed just 21 gains of 30-plus yards all season, 101st in the FBS. If Mond improves, so will this, but it needs to improve quite a bit.[br /][br /][h3][url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/130/michigan-wolverines" ]Michigan Wolverines[/url] (+3,500)[/h3][br /][b]If ... 2021 arrives early.[/b] Jim Harbaugh doesn't share depth charts, but if he did, you'd notice something pretty quickly about 2020's: almost no seniors. There might be only five or six senior starters and almost no final-year backups. The Wolverines' returning production figures will therefore skyrocket next season, but this season will see a young cast of characters.[br /][br /]That's not to say there's not talent. From running backs [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4426385/zach-charbonnet" ]Zach Charbonnet[/url] and [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4372071/hassan-haskins" ]Hassan Haskins[/url] to offensive tackle [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4372093/jalen-mayfield" ]Jalen Mayfield[/url] to linebacker [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4372085/cameron-mcgrone" ]Cameron McGrone[/url] and safety [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4426422/daxton-hill" ]Daxton Hill[/url], the sophomore class alone is loaded with difference-makers. But they'll need to mature at mach speed for the Wolverines to break through. Harbaugh's next big swing is probably a year away.[br /][br /][b]If ... a new offensive line jells.[/b] Charbonnet and Haskins were brilliant late in 2019 (as was the Michigan offense as a whole), but their degree of difficulty will increase considerably with both a new quarterback (likely either [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4258191/dylan-mccaffrey" ]Dylan McCaffrey[/url] or [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4360698/joe-milton" ]Joe Milton[/url]) and a new line. Mayfield is the only returning starter, and only two others have seen much rotation time. That's a less-than-optimal combination for sustaining improvement.[br /][br /][b]If ... Big Game Don Brown returns.[/b] The Michigan defense has ranked 11th or better in defensive SP+ in every year of the Harbaugh era; Don Brown remains one of the best coordinators around. But the magic has vanished versus elite offenses. Against Alabama, Ohio State and Wisconsin in 2019 and Florida and Ohio State in 2018, the Wolverines allowed 46 points per game and 7.6 yards per play. Brown's defense is boom-or-bust by nature, but that's a lot of busts. Needless to say, that must change.[br /][br /][b]If ... the red zone is friendlier.[/b] Scoring opportunities were a net loss for the Wolverines, something you almost never see from an otherwise good team. The Michigan offense averaged 4.9 points per scoring opportunity (34th in FBS), but the defense allowed 5.0 (115th). That edge must flip significantly. Last season's CFP teams averaged a plus-1.1-point margin here (including Oklahoma's awful red zone defense), not minus-0.1.[br /][br /][h3][url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/197/oklahoma-state-cowboys" ]Oklahoma State Cowboys[/url] (+5000)[/h3][br /][b]If ... [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4361825/spencer-sanders" ]Spencer Sanders[/url] keeps maturing.[/b] Sanders was a lit firecracker at quarterback in 2019; you knew something was about to explode, good or bad. He averaged 13.3 yards per completion and 6.1 yards per non-sack carry, but his interception rate (4.5%) was double what it needed to be. Then again, he was a freshman. Maturation could be very kind to what is a dramatically high-upside talent.[br /][br /]So could one of the best skill corps in the country: running back [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4241416/chuba-hubbard" ]Chuba Hubbard[/url] and wide receiver [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4241424/tylan-wallace" ]Tylan Wallace[/url] are All-American candidates, and most secondary options return. The skill corps is why OSU's title odds are what they are. Now the Cowboys just need a more stable ball distributor.[br /][br /][b]If ... a more experienced D-line is a better D-line.[/b] OSU nearly made the BCS title game in 2011 with a defense that ranked 38th in defensive SP+; with this offense, you don't necessarily need elite defense to contend. But OSU ranked only 58th last year thanks primarily to a shaky front that neither stood up to the run nor put pressure on the QB.[br /][br /]Of course, the line was almost completely freshmen and sophomores. With better development up front, a speedy, physical back seven could do a lot of damage. Linebackers [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4241411/malcolm-rodriguez" ]Malcolm Rodriguez[/url], [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4038432/amen-ogbongbemiga" ]Amen Ogbongbemiga[/url] and [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4038429/calvin-bundage" ]Calvin Bundage[/url] and safeties [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4361838/kolby-harvell-peel" ]Kolby Harvell-Peel[/url], [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4241412/tre-sterling" ]Tre Sterling[/url] and [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4361834/jarrick-bernard" ]Jarrick Bernard[/url] could be dynamite with more help.[br /][br /][b]If ... the corners are as good as the safeties.[/b] With strong safeties, OSU was still only 53rd in passing success rate and 69th in ANY/A allowed. Corner [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4038430/rodarius-williams" ]Rodarius Williams[/url] allowed 8.0 AY/A, and Missouri transfer [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4035105/christian-holmes" ]Christian Holmes[/url] was at 9.5. They are fun, physical, aggressive and beatable. This unit must improve.[br /][br /][b]If ... Sanders gets shorter fields.[/b] When your defense isn't particularly efficient, you lose the turnovers battle, you get nothing out of the return game and you saddle your offense with bad field position. OSU's average starting field position was 28.1, 100th in FBS. Giving Sanders & Co. more short fields will quickly plump up the scoring average.[br /][br /][h3][url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/275/wisconsin-badgers" ]Wisconsin Badgers[/url] (+6000)[/h3][br /][b]If ... new offensive pieces meet a sky-high standard. [/b]Wisconsin almost always has great RBs and interior linemen. Still, departed All-Americans Jonathan Taylor (RB) and Tyler Biadasz (center) set an awfully high bar, and both starting guards are gone, too. Wisconsin will be good here, but the Badgers need to be as good as ever to contend. It's hard to predict that will happen.[br /][br /][b]If ... explosive pass plays are occasionally a thing.[/b] When Wisconsin nearly made the CFP in 2017, the top four Badgers WRs combined to average 15.9 yards per catch. Last year, however, the top four averaged just 12.6. And now Quintez Cephus, the only big-play threat, is a Detroit Lion.[br /][br /][url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4242331/jack-coan" ]Jack Coan[/url] completed 70% of his passes, but big plays and easy points were hard to come by. In four losses, theBadgers scored just eight offensive touchdowns, two via short fields.[br /][br /][b]If ... the linebacker assembly line continues apace.[/b] As with running backs and linemen, Wisconsin linebackers continue to dominate no matter the attrition levels. But as with Taylor and Biadasz, the standard is particularly high at the moment: Departed starters Zack Baun and Chris Orr combined for 33.5 TFLs, 24 sacks, eight passes defensed and 45 run stuffs last year. Those are decent [i]career[/i] numbers. While sophomores [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4426901/leo-chenal" ]Leo Chenal[/url] and [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4372573/jaylan-franklin" ]Jaylan Franklin[/url] and some awfully impressive incoming freshmen have all the requisite potential, there's almost no way to avoid regression. That puts pressure on the other units to improve.[br /][br /]Of course, the line and secondary return almost literally everyone. They probably [i]will[/i] improve.[br /][br /][b]If ... the legs improve[/b]. Wisconsin's field position margin was a decent +2.9 yards per drive, 31st in FBS. Just imagine what it might have been had Badgers punters averaged better than 36 net yards per punt. And imagine how the year might have played out had Badgers kickers not missed field goals in one-point losses to Illinois and Oregon or a turning-point FG attempt in the Big Ten title game. The legs let Wisconsin down. That can't happen again.[br /][br /][h3][url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/30/usc-trojans" ]USC Trojans[/url] (+7500)[/h3][br /][b]If ... a couple of tackles emerge.[/b] USC's offense took flight in Graham Harrell's first season as coordinator. Freshman [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4428512/kedon-slovis" ]Kedon Slovis[/url] threw for 3,500 yards, and the Trojans jumped from 46th to ninth in offensive SP+. Slovis, all the running backs and three of four key wideouts all return, and further improvement appears imminent ... as long as the Trojans find a couple of tackles to step up. Both starters are gone, and some combination of 2019 backup [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4035699/frank-martin-ii" ]Frank Martin II[/url], starting guards [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4259646/alijah-vera-tucker" ]Alijah Vera-Tucker[/url] and [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4259644/jalen-mckenzie" ]Jalen McKenzie[/url], and youngsters will have to thrive protecting Slovis immediately, as a Week 1 battle with Alabama looms large.[br /][br /][b]If ... growing pains mean growth in the secondary.[/b] Among 14 DBs who made at least one tackle from scrimmage last year, nine were freshmen and four were sophomores. Most of them were former blue-chip recruits and flashed potential -- safeties [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4360853/talanoa-hufanga" ]Talanoa Hufanga[/url] and [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4259632/isaiah-pola-mao" ]Isaiah Pola-Mao[/url] combined for 13 TFLs, corner [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4374299/olaijah-griffin" ]Olaijah Griffin[/url] allowed 5.0 AY/A -- but none was experienced. New coordinator Todd Orlando inherits a unit that could rebound massively, provided it undergoes the typical post-growing-pains development,.[br /][br /][b]If ... growing pains mean even bigger growth up front. [/b]The defensive front 6-7 was nearly as inexperienced as the secondary and far less effective: The Trojans were an awful 120th in rushing success rate allowed. Of the 15 LBs and linemen to log at least 100 snaps, though, 13 return. Rush end [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4569511/drake-jackson" ]Drake Jackson[/url] was one of the Pac-12's best as a freshman, and [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4243218/marlon-tuipulotu" ]Marlon Tuipulotu[/url] and [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4259647/jay-tufele" ]Jay Tufele[/url] are big and agile. We'll see how much improvement can take place in a single offseason.[br /][br /][b]If ... the god of turnovers smiles on the Trojans.[/b] You can break turnovers out into two components: turnover opportunities and luck. You can't control the latter -- the pointy ball bounces how it bounces -- but USC also forced only eight fumbles and defensed (intercepted or broke up) 58 passes. Opponents forced 16 fumbles and defensed 65. The Trojans have to do themselves some favors here, and a rebound likely starts with a more efficient defense that forces more passing downs.[br /][br /][h2]Five Ifs[/h2][br /][h3][url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2390/miami-hurricanes" ]Miami Hurricanes[/url] (+7500)[/h3][br /][b]If ... [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4039300/d'eriq-king" ]D'Eriq King[/url] + Rhett Lashlee = explosions. [/b]Miami's title odds are like Nebraska being included in this list last year: It would be an incredible story, it engages bettors, etc. And it's almost certainly not going to come to pass.[br /][br /]This admittedly fun vision requires King-Lashlee to become the new Burrow-Brady. King must surpass his 2018 Houston form (in which he threw for 2,982 yards and rushed for 14 TDs). Lashlee, an offensive coordinator with experience in both Gus Malzahn's run-heavy spread and Sonny Dykes' air raid, must mash worlds together into something glorious and unique. In this vision, King throws for 4,000 and rushes for 1,250, and Miami becomes must-watch again.[br /][br /][b]If ... the negative plays slow down dramatically.[/b] The Canes were 105th in stuff rate allowed, 121st in sack rate allowed and a ghastly 129th in havoc rate allowed. King and the new identity will help, as will the fact that the line returns pretty much everyone. But we're talking about a 180-degree turnaround in this department.[br /][br /][b]If ... the wideouts can actually beat man coverage at some point.[/b] Miami's top returning wideouts -- [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4240625/mike-harley" ]Mike Harley[/url], [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4362503/dee-wiggins" ]Dee Wiggins[/url] and [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4362499/mark-pope" ]Mark Pope[/url] -- averaged 7.7, 14.1 and 10 yards per target against zone coverage last year. Against man coverage: 6.1, 3.1 and 6.0. Any modern, title-caliber offense needs guys who can punish defenses when they switch from zone to man to account for RPOs. It doesn't immediately appear The U has that.[br /][br /][b]If ... yet another great defensive end emerges.[/b] [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4362506/gregory-rousseau" ]Gregory Rousseau[/url] emerged out of nowhere to become a dominant DE in head coach Manny Diaz's system. (It's not the first time that's happened.) But Rousseau is the only returnee among last year's top five tacklers up front. Can Temple transfer [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4044145/quincy-roche" ]Quincy Roche[/url] immediately dominate? Can someone from a batch of freshman candidates emerge as an immediate star?[br /][br /][b]If ... blitz downs are less disastrous.[/b] Miami was a bit too all-or-nothing defensively, ranking 10th in blitz down sack rates but 101st in blitz down success rate. This must obviously improve even despite all the turnover up front.[br/][br/][sectionHeader]Related Video[/sectionHeader][promoExternal HREF="http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=29215521&ex_cid=espnapi_affiliate_abcotv" IMAGE="https://a.espncdn.com/media/motion/2020/0524/dm_200524_Top_ten_CFB_plays_from_last_season/dm_200524_Top_ten_CFB_plays_from_last_season.jpg" TITLE="Top 10 plays of the 2019 college football season" DESCRIPTION="SportsCenter takes a look at the best plays from the 2019 college football season." ]