Chicago Mayoral Election: Latest poll shows Paul Vallas widening lead, no clear 2nd place candidate
Voters may not know who else makes the runoff for days after the election, and potential for recounts could further delay results
CHICAGO (WLS) -- A new poll in the race for Chicago mayor shows frontrunner Paul Vallas widening his lead, but it's looking like voters may not know who else makes the runoff for days after the election - and the potential for recounts could further delay the results.
The poll appears to be good news for Vallas, but perhaps complicated news for his next three closest challengers. If they remain bunched up and there is no clear second place finisher on Election Night, we could see multiple requests for recounts which might not start until two to three weeks after the election.
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A new independent poll by M3 Strategies shows Vallas leading the race with 32%, followed by a surging Brandon Johnson at 18%. They are followed by Lori Lightfoot at 13.6%, Jesus "Chuy" Garcia at 11.6%. Willie Wilson has dropped to single digits at 6.4%, while 14% remain undecided.
"Politically, you know, Paul Vallas holds up in the 30s and two or more candidates are still jockeying for second place," said Matt Podgorski, a pollster with M3 Strategies. "He'll have unfettered access to the voters and the donors, and it's a huge advantage."
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Complicating election night results is the surge in the number of Chicagoans voting by mail. Nearly 210,000 people have requested those ballots, which can be postmarked as late as February 28.
Those received by Monday will start to be opened, processed, and counted on Election Day, and those results will be included in Election Night results after 7 p.m. that night.
"It could take, 2, 3, 4 days to really get a sense of how many vote-by-mail ballots that we've got and when we know that they'll be counted," Bever said.
WATCH: What does latest Chicago mayoral race poll mean for Election Day?
And then there's the election law that allows candidates who finish within 5% of the second place vote getting to file for a recount.
Long time election attorney Burt Odelson, who is consulting for mayoral candidates Paul Vallas and Rod Sawyer, said multiple candidates could end up challenging the results.
"Even if it's just two people who are close, there'll be a discovery recount and then an election contest possible, which means you're not going to know who number two is for two or three weeks," Odelson said.
And to further complicate things, any recount requests can't be filed until after the election results are certified. The deadline for that is March 21, although the Board of Elections is hoping to get that done by March 15.
